Outlook for the US market: It is premature to dismiss inflation risks, says Allen from Deutsche Bank. The Dow Jones opened 73 points lower.

Hello, Moomoo users!Tonight's read on NY stocks.

Market Overview
In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consisting of high-quality stocks, started at $41,489.67, down $73.41, while the Nasdaq Composite Index, with a high proportion of technology stocks, started at 17,585.45, down 128.17 points. The S&P 500 Index, which consists of 500 large-cap stocks in the US, started at 5,623.89, down 24.51 points.

It is too early to dismiss inflation risks, according to analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank.
* Henry Allen, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, recently published a research report stating that while inflation measures have improved in the past 2 to 3 years and the US PCE inflation rate and the Eurozone CPI inflation rate have returned to within 3%, it is still too early to dismiss the risk of inflation. The report argues that there are four main reasons why investors should continue to pay attention to inflation risk.
* First, as major central banks around the world gradually begin their easing cycle, the growth of money supply is increasing again, pushing up price risks. According to data, the real yield of US 10-year bonds has dropped by more than 50 basis points since the peak in late April.

* Second, there are still upward risks for sticky inflation. Sticky inflation remains a key factor pushing up both headline inflation on a 3-month and 12-month basis.

* Third, there is a possibility that geopolitical shocks could push up commodity prices. In recent years, geopolitical conflicts have occurred frequently worldwide and have caused energy prices and shipping prices to rise several times.
* Finally, this report argues that global real yields are rising due to the impact of government deficits and fiscal stimulus costs, similar to the impact of the pandemic. In other words, financial policies may need to provide more stimulus than in the past to address potential future economic downturns. This could significantly increase the inflation rate.

* According to Tony Pasquariello, head of the hedge fund division at Goldman Sachs, US consumption remains strong.
* On September 3, Tony Pasquariello, head of the hedge fund business at Goldman Sachs, published an article reflecting on the US stock market and looking ahead to the future.
* According to his view, the technology sector is growing strongly, while the discussion on capital investment is heating up, signaling that the theme of AI is becoming increasingly "two-sided".
Tony believes that the consumption in the USA has slowed significantly compared to a year ago, but it is still resilient and he sees it as definitely stronger than what short sellers are considering.
Tony says that the current range of the US stock market's rise is exceeding expectations. Since the beginning of the year, 6 sectors out of 11 sectors in the S&P (financials, utilities, industrials, healthcare, materials, real estate) have reached 52-week highs, which he sees as a positive signal. Regarding the future, he mentions the possibility of some volatility in the autumn due to the expectation that the September Fed rate cut will stay at 25 basis points, weak results of the August non-farm payroll, and increased uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.
Currently, the interest rate market has priced in a 33 basis point rate cut in September. The non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday will likely be the decisive factor for the Fed's decision, as mentioned by Tony. He stated that from a long-term perspective, inflation data determines the trajectory of the easing cycle, economic data determines the pace and scale of the easing cycle, and the next economic indicator remains the focus of the market.