US market outlook: US bonds fall 48% from the highest ETF value in over 20 years, and the Dow average starts at a depreciation of $144.20

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US bonds over 20 years ETF, 48% lower from highest value - “higher, longer” direct hit
The largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in long-term bonds $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$ Prices have fallen 48% from a record high in 2020. The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, which suggested the possibility of maintaining interest rates at a higher level for longer, had an impact, and pain occurred.

Amid rising crude oil prices in addition to US bond yields, what is the future of the US stock market?
Driven by the Fed's hawkish statements, US bond yields have risen rapidly at full maturity. As of 9/25, $U.S. 1-Year Treasury Bills Yield(US12M.BD)$ is 5.444%, $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$ is 4.474% $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield(US30Y.BD)$ has reached 4.570%, achieving high levels since 2000/12, 2007/10, and 2011/4, respectively.

Warn traders, the best days of variable interest ETF investments are over
Traders rushing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that benefit from the “higher and longer” US monetary policy were warned that the best days to capture rapid increases in yield were over.

“Basis trading” of US bonds, declining threat to the financial system and Goldman
Interest rate strategists at Goldman Sachs Group pointed out that the possibility of destabilizing the financial system is low compared to before regarding the expansion of “basis transactions,” which aim to obtain profit by utilizing the price difference between actual and futures of US bonds.

If the US government closes, it will be “negative for US bonds” Moody's warns
The US rating agency Moody's Investors Service expressed on the 25th that if government agencies of the US federal government are forced to close, “it is negative in terms of credit” of US bonds. While the impact on the economy was “short-term,” it was warned that annual repayment burdens would increase due to rising interest rates and expansion of debt balances, and “fiscal flexibility would decline further.”

Q&A for an early understanding of what will happen due to the shutdown of the US government
There is less time left for the US Congress to pass a new spending bill. If the Republican and Democratic parties do not reach an agreement by 10/1, when the new fiscal year begins, many parts of the federal government will be forced to close. Here is a summary of the reasons why such a thing happens and the impact it has on American citizens.