US market outlook: US-China semiconductor hegemony battle, packaging is a new stage, the Dow Jones Industrial Average starts at 46 dollars lower

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The US term premium is negative again - concerns about the economic recession among traders
Among US bond investors, skepticism is spreading about whether the financial authorities led by Fed Chairman Powell can achieve a soft landing (soft landing) in the economy. This is the message that can be seen from recent movements in so-called term premiums. The term premium turned negative again, and it was suggested that bond buyers were not seeking additional yields in return for the risks associated with holding US bonds for a longer period of time.

US-China semiconductor hegemony battle, packaging is a new stage - not subject to US regulations
US President Biden is developing a two-sided strategy of restricting access to advanced semiconductors by China while strengthening semiconductor production within the US in order to suppress China's breakthrough in the high-tech field. In order to further increase pressure, the Biden administration is shifting its focus to a new stage of competition for technology hegemony, that is, the packaging process that is being viewed as a process for realizing higher performance semiconductors.

60% of US consumers, emergency spending of 300,000 yen is possible, at a record low
The New York Federal Reserve Bank announced the results of a survey on consumer savings and borrowing on the 20th. The percentage that answered that 2000 dollars (about 300,000 yen) could be spent urgently over the next month was 64.4%, the lowest figure since the survey began. It can be seen that household finances are becoming tight due to high prices and a decrease in savings.

US Tesla and Indian government close to agreement on EV exports and local factory construction - stakeholders
Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer's rice $Tesla (TSLA.US)$EVs will be exported to India from next year, and they are getting closer to an agreement with the Indian government in the direction of constructing a local factory within 2 years. Stakeholders who know the government's policy made it clear.

Opinions are also divided between next year's corporate performance and strategists
Opinions are also divided among strategists on corporate earnings forecasts for next year. In a negative outlook, they argue that regardless of whether there is a recession or not, the decline in corporate pricing power will put pressure on sales and profits. On the other hand, the positive outlook predicts that corporate sales will hold up even in a recession. Meanwhile, according to indicators from major US banks, earnings forecasts for US companies have been revised downward for 9 consecutive weeks, which exceeds upward revisions.

There is a possibility that the rise in the US dollar against yen will end
The market strategist at UOB Global Economics and Markets Research, Mr. Quek Cell Leon, expressed the view that the rise in the US dollar against the yen over the past few months seems to have ended by forming an “outside reversal week” on the 17th of last week based on technical charts.

There was a brake on yen sales, speculators behind the sudden change in the first half of the 147 yen range
There is a brake on yen sales in the foreign exchange market. On the 21st, the yen exchange rate hit the high level of yen since mid-September, with 1 dollar = the first half of the 147 yen range at one point. Movements to let go of the US dollar spread from the view that the US would enter a phase of interest rate cuts in mid-2024. The existence of speculative transactions also led to rapid changes.

OpenAI, management normalization far away, is Microsoft a “fisherman's advantage”
Confusion continues surrounding the management of US Open AI, which developed the generative AI (artificial intelligence) “Chat (chat) GPT.” It became known on the 20th that employees began signature activities calling for management reform, and over 90% showed approval. As generative AI rapidly penetrates society, rice has supported the company $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$There is a view that their position will be strengthened.