US market outlook: US Treasury quarterly bid size is lower than expected, and the Dow average starts at $29 higher

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US Treasury Slows Down Pace of Expanding the Scale of Quarterly Bidding - Below Market Expectations
The US Treasury Department expanded the scale of quarterly regular bidding compared to the previous quarter, but the pace of increase was lower than expected by most major dealers. It has been suggested that the authorities may be concerned about the sharp rise in US bond yields in recent months. According to the ministry's announcement, the total amount of medium- to long-term bonds to be issued in next week's bid is 112 billion dollars. Many dealers anticipated the same pace of increase as last time and expected it to be 114 billion dollars, but it fell below that.

Update - [Index Bulletin] US ADP private sector employment falls short of expectations with an increase of 113,000 in October
According to the October US employment report announced by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a payroll calculation service for enterprises, the number of people employed in the private sector only increased by 113,000, and although it increased from the previous 89,000 people, it fell below market expectations (150,000 increase). The current statistics suggest that the labor market has begun to cool down markedly when the previous month's worth is taken into account.

JPMorgan's Kelly Recommends Value Stocks - Still Cautious About Large Tech Stocks
The recent decline in US stocks, combined with a strong financial season so far, has led to the valuation of stocks using the S&P 500 stock price index approaching past average values. David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management believes that this combination will provide investors with an opportunity to examine value stocks. On the other hand, he continues to be cautious, assuming that the price-earnings ratio (PER) of large technology stocks is still at a high level when compared to past levels.

Will the US Federal Reserve leave interest rates unchanged and start cutting interest rates long before
XS dot com market analyst Samel Hasson said, “There is a widespread view in the market that the Fed has already finished raising interest rates, but it is still unclear when interest rate cuts will begin, and it seems that it will not be until the latter half of 2024.” According to Refinitiv's data, the market has factored in the possibility that the initial rate cut will be cut by 25 basis points (bp) in July next year.

FRB to “suspend hawkish interest rate hikes” - options for additional interest rate hikes are likely to be preserved
The US financial authorities are expected to make a decision to leave policy interest rates unchanged at a high level for the first time in 22 years for 2 consecutive meetings at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on a 2-day schedule until November 1. Meanwhile, it is expected that the option to raise additional interest rates in December against the backdrop of solid economic growth will be preserved.

Toyota surpasses Tesla's “profit margin” and recovers earning power by normalizing supply
$Toyota Motor.JP$The “earning power” of is recovering. The consolidated net profit for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/9, which was announced on the 1st, hit a high for the first time in 2 years. The depreciation of the yen progressed compared to before the novel coronavirus disaster, and the number of units produced also exceeded the level at that time due to the normalization of the supply chain, and the price increase effect repelled the high cost of raw materials. The net profit margin on sales on a half-year basis is 11.8% for Toyota, and rival rice $TSLA.US$It surpassed (9.4%) for the first time in five and a half years. As a result of Tesla setting up price reduction competition in the North American and Chinese markets, development costs for new models have taken precedence, and profitability has deteriorated recently.

Subaru to adopt “Tesla type” in US EV charging standards since '25
$Subaru.JP$(Subaru) is a major US electric vehicle (EV) company in North America on the 1st $TSLA.US$It was announced that the fast charging standard “NACS” will be adopted from 2025.

Macrofunds recover rapidly in July-September - increased volatility contributed
Macrotrade had the best performance among hedge fund strategies in July-September (3rd quarter). Economic uncertainty echoed in January-June (first half), and it was sluggish. According to hedge fund management company Sitco, Macro Fund returns for the July-9 fiscal year were an increase of 3.07% on an asset-weighted basis. In contrast to this, multi-strategy funds and equity funds had negative returns of around 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Macrofunds, which invest based on political and economic events, continued to be wait-and-see in the January-June period, but volatility rose from the end of August to the end of September, and the fact that the outlook on interest rates became more clear worked positively.

Toyota predicts China's EV export offensive will intensify - exploring when to launch its products
China, where the spread of electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly progressing, will further strengthen its overseas export offensive for EVs produced in its own country. least $Toyota Motor.JP$seems to think so. Toyota's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Yoichi Miyazaki (CFO) was asked at the financial results conference on the 1st about the impact of China's EV exports on the company in Southeast Asia, etc., and expressed the view that local Chinese manufacturers “must think that they will strengthen exports or expand into the region” of EVs. On top of that, he said that Toyota also has an EV lineup, and the rest is a matter of when they will be introduced.

Will the Bank of Japan's policy revisions advance to 155 yen per dollar and 1.2% long-term interest rates? How to look at the market is divided
At the monetary policy meeting on the 31st, the Bank of Japan made policy revisions, such as setting 1% as the upper limit for yield curve control (YCC). As a way for the market to accept the Bank of Japan's policy revisions, interest rates will rise, but for the time being, long-term interest rates will not move much higher than 1%, and there seem to be many views that the yen will depreciate in line with trends in interest rate differences between Japan and the US. However, there are differences in views about what level the Bank of Japan will allow long-term interest rates, and whether there is an upper limit itself in the first place. Check out the views of market participants introduced in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Bloomberg from the 31st to the 1st.