US market outlook: NVIDIA recovers to the $100 mark while JPMorgan raised the probability of a US recession until the end of the year, GS took cold water to increasingly optimistic interest rate cuts in the market
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Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 176.93 dollars to 38940.38 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, began at 16408.27 with a 212.46 point increase. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 companies, which are large US stocks, rose 53.07 points to 5252.57.
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 176.93 dollars to 38940.38 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, began at 16408.27 with a 212.46 point increase. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 companies, which are large US stocks, rose 53.07 points to 5252.57.
Top news
GS says there is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates urgently, leaving cold water on the market's increasingly optimistic interest rate cut observations
● Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius showered cold water on calls for interest rate cuts. As a result of his analysis through the two models, he showed that current market instability does not pose a real threat to the economy. Therefore, it was stated that there is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates urgently.
● Goldman Sachs estimated how changes in the market environment would affect the economy using the Financial Situation Index (FCI) framework. The bank believes that from the viewpoint of economic soundness, there is almost no risk of large-scale monetary tightening as currently seen.
● Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius showered cold water on calls for interest rate cuts. As a result of his analysis through the two models, he showed that current market instability does not pose a real threat to the economy. Therefore, it was stated that there is no need for the Fed to cut interest rates urgently.
● Goldman Sachs estimated how changes in the market environment would affect the economy using the Financial Situation Index (FCI) framework. The bank believes that from the viewpoint of economic soundness, there is almost no risk of large-scale monetary tightening as currently seen.
FCI includes stock prices, interest rates (short and long term), credit spreads, and trade weight dollars. FCI is an index that analyzes interactions between different economic variables.
● Goldman Sachs also shows this in the Financial Stress Index (FSI). According to the bank, much of the tightening of the financial environment so far is due to anticipated increases in volatility in the stock market and corporate bond market. As a result, the funding market situation has tightened, but so far it seems to remain within the range of the past few years. Meanwhile, the US bond market situation has steadily deteriorated since 2022, but it has deteriorated slightly further.
FSI consists of 14 types of indicators covering a wide range of aspects of the stock market, bond market, and financial market. By comprehensively analyzing these indicators, it is possible to provide early warning signals relating to the soundness of the financial system as a whole.
US credit card debt data for June suggests softening of rice consumption
●Credit statistics for June announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) suggested that US consumption had begun to peak, so concerns about the US recession spread to the market.
●According to the consumer credit report released monthly by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), US consumer credit in June increased by 8.9 billion 34 million dollars, lower than the expected 10 billion dollars, and significantly lower than the 13.9 billion dollar in May, which was revised upward.
●Credit statistics for June announced by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) suggested that US consumption had begun to peak, so concerns about the US recession spread to the market.
●According to the consumer credit report released monthly by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), US consumer credit in June increased by 8.9 billion 34 million dollars, lower than the expected 10 billion dollars, and significantly lower than the 13.9 billion dollar in May, which was revised upward.
● What is noteworthy is that US revolving credit (credit card debt) declined by 1.7 billion dollars in June contrary to expectations. What is feared is that every time such a major decline occurs, some kind of economic crisis continues or has already begun.
Disney, Airbnb, and Hilton financial results suggest sluggish US consumption
● $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ 、 $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ 、 $NESTLE S.A SPONS (NSRGY.US)$ 、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ Following the deterioration in the performance of major restaurants and major consumer goods companies, etc. $Disney (DIS.US)$ 、 $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ 、 $Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$Major travel and lodging companies, etc. have also issued warnings in their latest financial results that American consumers are reducing spending on food, travel, and leisure as a result of a decrease in disposable income.
● $Disney (DIS.US)$Hugh Johnston, the chief financial officer of, said the theme park business was hit by “slowing consumer demand,” and operating profit fell 3%.
● Not just Disney, $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ Ya $Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$ Companies such as these have also been hit by sluggish consumption in the US. On Tuesday, Airbnb warned that demand for lodging from American travelers was showing signs of slowing down despite the peak travel season, and indicated that full-year revenue growth would slow. In response to this, Airbnb shares plummeted by over 13% on Wednesday.
● $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ 、 $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$ 、 $NESTLE S.A SPONS (NSRGY.US)$ 、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ Following the deterioration in the performance of major restaurants and major consumer goods companies, etc. $Disney (DIS.US)$ 、 $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ 、 $Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$Major travel and lodging companies, etc. have also issued warnings in their latest financial results that American consumers are reducing spending on food, travel, and leisure as a result of a decrease in disposable income.
● $Disney (DIS.US)$Hugh Johnston, the chief financial officer of, said the theme park business was hit by “slowing consumer demand,” and operating profit fell 3%.
● Not just Disney, $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ Ya $Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$ Companies such as these have also been hit by sluggish consumption in the US. On Tuesday, Airbnb warned that demand for lodging from American travelers was showing signs of slowing down despite the peak travel season, and indicated that full-year revenue growth would slow. In response to this, Airbnb shares plummeted by over 13% on Wednesday.
● Also, $Hilton Worldwide (HLT.US)$ CEO Chris Nassetta said the US consumer market “is definitely softening” after Wednesday's financial results.
He said, “American consumers are now using all the money they saved during the epidemic, disposable income is decreasing, and even travel consumption is declining.”
The number of new unemployment insurance claims in the US last week was lower than expected +0.233 million
Number of new unemployment insurance claims in the US last week: +0.233 million (forecast: 0.24 million, previous: 0.249 million)
Number of new unemployment insurance claims in the US last week: +0.233 million (forecast: 0.24 million, previous: 0.249 million)
JP Morgan raised the probability of a US recession until the end of the year from 25% to 35%
● Raise the probability of a rice recession until the end of the year from 25% to 35%
● Remain unchanged at 45% for the second half of 2025
● There are early signs of a succession of layoffs
●Labor Market Softening May Exceed Expectations
●Inflation is expected to ease further in the future
● The US Financial Services Authority is expected to cut interest rates by 50 bps in September and November
● Raise the probability of a rice recession until the end of the year from 25% to 35%
● Remain unchanged at 45% for the second half of 2025
● There are early signs of a succession of layoffs
●Labor Market Softening May Exceed Expectations
●Inflation is expected to ease further in the future
● The US Financial Services Authority is expected to cut interest rates by 50 bps in September and November
Carry transactions that have been wiped out
● $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$It was also announced that three-quarters of global carry trades have been eliminated, and this year's profits have been written off due to the recent crash.
● G10, emerging markets, and global carry trade basket returns tracked by JPMorgan have fallen by about 10% since May, and according to banks, the current crash has drastically cut profits accumulated since the end of 2022.
● $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$It was also announced that three-quarters of global carry trades have been eliminated, and this year's profits have been written off due to the recent crash.
● G10, emerging markets, and global carry trade basket returns tracked by JPMorgan have fallen by about 10% since May, and according to banks, the current crash has drastically cut profits accumulated since the end of 2022.
Buffett in Japan
● Warren Buffett said that the value of shares held by Japanese trading companies was blown away by about 6.7 billion dollars due to the recent market crash, but losses shrunk along with the recovery of Japanese stocks.
● However, as Japanese stocks recovered, his losses shrunk. Run by Mr. Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$ is $Apple (AAPL.US)$After selling, it built a record cash pile of 276.9 billion dollars in the second quarter.
●Related articles:Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Average Falls for the First Time in 3 Days, Trading Company Stocks That Mr. Buffett Loves Will Increase Their Undervaluation Due to the Japanese Stock Crash -- Has an Investment Opportunity Arrived
● Warren Buffett said that the value of shares held by Japanese trading companies was blown away by about 6.7 billion dollars due to the recent market crash, but losses shrunk along with the recovery of Japanese stocks.
● However, as Japanese stocks recovered, his losses shrunk. Run by Mr. Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$ is $Apple (AAPL.US)$After selling, it built a record cash pile of 276.9 billion dollars in the second quarter.
●Related articles:Tokyo Market Summary: Nikkei Average Falls for the First Time in 3 Days, Trading Company Stocks That Mr. Buffett Loves Will Increase Their Undervaluation Due to the Japanese Stock Crash -- Has an Investment Opportunity Arrived
— MooMoo News Zeber
Sources: Moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Sources: Moomoo, Bloomberg, MINKABU, Dow Jones
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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