US Stock Investor Interview! Which investment destinations is Mr. Tapazou currently paying attention to?
foregoingPart 1Then, I asked him for an overview of the investment history of Mr. Tappazo, who achieved FIRE in his early 40s. This time, which is the 2nd timeWe focused on Mr. Tappazo's views on current market conditions and his way of thinking about investment destinations.. The sectors that Mr. Tappazou is paying attention to and his current portfolio have also been discussed in detail, so be sure to check them out!
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・There is also a possibility that the yen will depreciate in the long term and appreciate in the medium term
・The focus now is on US bonds and the high-tech sector
・The ideal ratio of stocks to cash is 7 to 3
・There is also a possibility that the yen will depreciate in the long term and appreciate in the medium term
・The focus now is on US bonds and the high-tech sector
・The ideal ratio of stocks to cash is 7 to 3
Tappazou's Profile
・Advisor to US stock investors and investment management firms
・Began investing in US stocks in 2010
・I left the company in 2019 and became independent
・Advisor to US stock investors and investment management firms
・Began investing in US stocks in 2010
・I left the company in 2019 and became independent
The current investment destinations are about half of the S&P 500 index and real estate
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――What are your thoughts on current market conditions? The moomoo community in particular seems to be interested in the whereabouts of the dollar and yen, but how do you view it?
Tappazo-san: Based on the economic situation, it's 20 years, 30 yearsIf you think about the long term, it is unavoidable to slowly depreciate the yenI think so. However,I think there is a possibility that the yen will rebound back to appreciation in the medium term. So, there is no need to hurry to transfer yen funds to dollars all at onceI think so.
However, if you don't have a certain amount of dollars, it is inconvenient to invest flexibly.If you are considering investing in US stocks from now on, it is a good idea to start with savings and small investments, and increase dollar funds while gaining investment experienceI think so.
――How long do you think the yen will appreciate, and to what extent do you think the yen will appreciate?
Tappazo-san: Basically, it is driven by purchasing power parity, so the yen will depreciate, but if the difference in interest rates between Japan and the US narrows and there is a movement back to appreciation of the yen,There is a possibility that it will soon go to the 120 yen range of 1 dollarIt might be. However, since interest rate differences have not narrowed at the moment, I think there is a possibility that the yen depreciation trend will be prolonged.
The exchange rate has many variables and is very difficult to predict, so I try not to predict it too much. Rather than that, I think it is important to properly manage risk and avoid major losses.
-- What impact will developments in US interest rates have on investment?
Tappazo-san: We had considered bond investment as of 2017, but the low interest rates at that time were no longer discussed at all. Recently, however,I think there is a bond investment. I haven't invested yet, but I'm watching. I hadn't even seen it until now. I think it's okay to buy it if I have dollar cash, but I don't have it right now, so it's bothersome.
If you have dollar assets, you could also invest in bonds. For example,7-year and 10-year old, such as high-risk corporate bonds and subordinated bonds issued by European financial institutionsThere is also one. However, if the exchange rate depreciates to 1 dollar = 100 yen, profits will disappear all at once. There is no denying that there is an exchange rate risk, but I think there is also a possibility that things will go well.
Conversely, stocks are a bit expensive, aren't they? The company's performance hasn't increased, so I think buying from here is different from my point of view. The terminal points for interest rates have come into view, so it's actually rising like a rewind in premium.
Also, related stocks have risen due to expectations for generative AI, but this does not mean that the content of the business itself has changed. I feel that rising stock prices without an increase in performance is a bit disgusting.
The focus now is on US bonds and the high-tech sector
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――Can you tell us about the industries and brands you're currently paying attention to?
Tappazo-san: After allWhat I'm paying attention to is the high tech sectorRight. I think semiconductor-related matters are strong.
If NVIDIA had invested, I think it would have ended in June this year. If PER is multiplied by 100, it doesn't match my point of view. If business performance increases, the stock price may reach 1000 dollars.
Nonetheless, since there are stocks like Tesla, I also understand that stocks are not selected solely by EPS (net profit per share). Tesla and Apple are also following suit, but that doesn't match my point of view. However, since they are raising profits by acquiring Twitter,After all, Mr. Musk is specialI think so.
――What fields is Mr. Tappazou currently investing in?
Tappazo-san：Currently, US stocks are only in the S&P 500 index, and individual stocks are not held. I invested in the index last year at a timing that suited my vision.
A portfolio of about half of US stocks and domestic real estateIt has become. However, a significant portion of domestic real estate is loans.
I bought quite a bit of domestic real estate last year. We only invest in residential real estate, and we don't invest in relatively high-risk commercial properties. They said “it's cheap now” at various seminars, so I bought a little too much, which is unusual in recent years (laughs). It's a property in Tokyo, Kanagawa, etc., but basically I'd like to move it to Tokyo. However, properties in Tokyo are really expensive. Condominiums have high construction material costs, so we are investing in wooden apartments. Luckily, I was able to buy real estate with a full loan. So, I'm saving up a bit of money now.
Risk management is carried out in parallel with stock investment and hard asset investmentI don't think that will change in the future.
The ideal ratio of stocks to cash is 7 to 3
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-- How do you decide on the allocation of funds to investees?
Tappazo-san: In the case of stocks, I try to look at the ratio to cash. However, since 2010, stocks have grown rapidly, so it is difficult to secure cash, or rather, the stock ratio has grown steadily. OriginallyThe ratio of stocks to cash is about 7 to 3I'm thinking of making it a stock, but currently about 80% are stocks.
Furthermore, when a good property comes up in real estate, they will be cashed out again, so it's quite a difficult situation, isn't it?
――Aren't you interested in Japanese stocks?
Tappazo-san: Not at all (laughs). I think it would be nice, though. The Nikkei Stock Average is growing, and I would like it to grow even more. However, if you look at it on a dollar basis, it may not have grown that much.
-- Do you trade derivatives?
Tappazo-san: You don't trade derivatives anymore, do you? We're only doing really simple deals. I haven't done anything like going against it or using options to hedge.A style that is simple, put in with Dawn when it's cheap, and lasts for a few years at the longestIt is.
When it comes to alternatives, I think there are inefficient parts of the market.Apart from whether America is good or bad, it is still close to capitalism and is a very reasonable marketI think so.
《Disclaimers, etc.》
● The purpose of this material is to provide information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not intended to solicit investment. Investments are made at the customer's own discretion.
● This material has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. of the information and opinions based on them. The information described in this document is current on the date the material was prepared, and is subject to change without notice.
● Even if any damage occurs as a result of an investment made based on this document, regardless of the reason, Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and Mr. Tappazo are not responsible at all.
● It is prohibited to reproduce, reprint, transfer, etc. part or all of this material without permission, regardless of electronic or mechanical method or purpose.
● The purpose of this material is to provide information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not intended to solicit investment. Investments are made at the customer's own discretion.
● This material has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. of the information and opinions based on them. The information described in this document is current on the date the material was prepared, and is subject to change without notice.
● Even if any damage occurs as a result of an investment made based on this document, regardless of the reason, Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and Mr. Tappazo are not responsible at all.
● It is prohibited to reproduce, reprint, transfer, etc. part or all of this material without permission, regardless of electronic or mechanical method or purpose.
《Disclosure matters relating to conflicts of interest》
● Stock selection is carried out at Mr. Tappazou's own judgment, and we have not accepted any stock designations from third parties, including Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
● There is no serious conflict of interest between the person in charge of writing, Mr. Tappazou, and the company covered by this document.
● Stock selection is carried out at Mr. Tappazou's own judgment, and we have not accepted any stock designations from third parties, including Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
● There is no serious conflict of interest between the person in charge of writing, Mr. Tappazou, and the company covered by this document.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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カウカウ : Because I'm looking forward
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タマちゃん_2911 : My life is full of turbulence
聖地 : If the investment history starts in 2010, the Lehman shock, IT bubble, Black Monday, etc. have not been experienced, but what is it like?
182cbmio009 : That's good
182674858 : That was great news.
I'd like to get started with US stocks.
虹色クレヨン : It's painful when the yen appreciates even if the price of US stocks rises.