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moomooジャパン wrote a post · Oct 2, 2023 11:05

US Stock Investor Interview! What are the investment destinations that Tapazo is paying attention to now?

Everyone, welcome to moomoo's featured individual investor investment experience stories!

foregoing1stThen, I asked you about an overview of the investment history of Mr. Tabazo, who achieved FIRE in her early 40s. This time, which is the 2ndWe asked for discussions focusing on Mr. Tabazo's views on current market conditions and the way investors think. It also talks in detail about the sectors that Mr. Tabazo is paying attention to and his current portfolio, so be sure to check it out!
Recently, trading of US stocks has begun with moomoo.If you are interested in the stocks recommended by Mr. Tabazo, please use it. You can check the details here>>moomoo securities account opening campaign
US Stock Investor Interview! What are the investment destinations that Tapazo is paying attention to now?
points
・There is also a possibility that the yen will depreciate in the long run and appreciate in the medium term
・The current focus is on US bonds and the high-tech sector
・The ideal ratio of stock to cash is 7 to 3
Profile of Mr. Tapa Elephant
・US stock investor, advisor to an investment advisory firm
・Start investing in US stocks in 2010
・Retired from the company in 2019 and became independent
The current investment destination is about half of the S&P 500 Index and real estate
_______________________________________
――What are your thoughts on current market conditions? In particular, people in the moomoo community seem to be highly interested in the whereabouts of the dollar and yen, but how do you view it?
Tapa Elephant: Based on the economic situation, it's 20 or 30 yearsIf you think about the long term, it is unavoidable that the yen will slowly depreciateI think so. However,I think there is a possibility that the yen will reverse its appreciation in the medium term. So, there is no need to rush to transfer yen funds to dollars all at onceI think so.
However, if you don't have dollars to some extent, it is inconvenient to invest flexibly.If you are considering investing in US stocks from now on, it is a good idea to start with savings or small investments and increase dollar funds while gaining investment experienceI think so.
――How long do you think it will take for the yen to appreciate?
Tapa Elephant: Basically, it comes down to purchasing power parity, so the yen will depreciate, but if the interest rate difference between Japan and the US shrinks and there is a movement to return to appreciation of the yen,There is a possibility that it will soon reach the 1 dollar = 120 yen rangeMaybe. However, since interest rate differences have not decreased at the moment, I think there is a possibility that the yen depreciation trend will be prolonged.
The exchange rate has many variables and is very difficult to predict, so I try not to make too many predictions. Rather than that, I think it is important to properly manage risk and avoid major losses.
-- How will changes in interest rates in the US affect investment?
Tapa Elephant: We have considered bond investments as of 2017, but the low interest rates at that time were completely untalked about. Recently, however,I think bond investment is “possible”. I haven't invested yet, but I'm watching. I haven't even watched it until now. I think it's okay to buy it if I have cash in dollars, but I don't have one right now, so I'm worried.
If you have dollar assets, you can also invest in bonds. For instance,7-year or 10-year high-risk corporate bonds or subordinated bonds issued by European financial institutionsThere is also one. However, if the exchange rate rises to 1 dollar = 100 yen, profits will disappear all at once. There is no denying that there is an exchange rate risk, but I think there is a possibility that it will work.
Conversely, stocks are a bit expensive, aren't they? The company's performance is not growing, so I think buying from here is different from my point of view. Interest rate terminal points have come into view, so it's actually going up like a rebound in premium.
Also, related stocks are rising due to expectations for generative AI, but this does not mean that the details of the business itself have changed. I feel that the rise in stock prices without an increase in performance is a bit of a disgusting trend.
The current focus is on US bonds and the high-tech sector
_______________________________________
――Can you tell us about the industries and stocks you are currently paying attention to?
Tapa Elephant:After allThe focus is on the high-tech sectorRight. I think semiconductor-related matters are strong.
If NVIDIA had invested, I think it would have ended in June this year. If PER is increased 100 times, it doesn't fit my point of view. If business results improve, the stock price may reach 1000 dollars.
Nonetheless, since there are stocks like Tesla, I also understand that stocks are not selected based on EPS (net profit per share) alone. Tesla and Apple are also following, but that doesn't fit my point of view. However, since Twitter is being acquired and profits are being raised,After all, Mr. Musk is specialI think so.
――What fields is Mr. Tabazo currently investing in?
Tapa Elephant：Currently, only the S&P 500 index is used for US stocks, and individual stocks are not held. I invested in indices last year at a timing that suited my perspective.
A portfolio of about half of US stocks and domestic real estateIt has become. However, a significant portion of domestic real estate is a loan.
I bought quite a bit of domestic real estate last year. We only invest in residential real estate, and we don't invest in commercial real estate, which is relatively risky. They said “it's cheap now” at various seminars, so I bought a little too much, which is unusual in recent years (laughs). It's a property in Tokyo, Kanagawa, etc., but basically I would like to move it to Tokyo. However, properties in Tokyo are really expensive. Condominiums are expensive for building materials, so they are investing in wooden apartments. Luckily, I was able to buy real estate with a full loan. So now I'm saving some money.
Risk management will be carried out in parallel with stock investment and hard asset investmentI mean, I don't think it will change in the future.
The ideal ratio of stock to cash is 7 to 3
_______________________________________
――How do you decide on the allocation of funds for investees?
Tapa Elephant: In the case of stocks, I try to look at the ratio to cash. However, since 2010, stocks have grown rapidly, so it is difficult to secure cash, or rather, the share ratio is getting bigger and bigger. OriginallyThe ratio of stock to cash is about 7 to 3I'm thinking of doing it, but currently about 80% are stocks.
Furthermore, when a good property comes up in real estate, it will be cashed out again, so it's quite a difficult situation.
――Are you interested in Japanese stocks?
Tapa Elephant: Not at all (laughs). I think it would be nice, though. The Nikkei Stock Average is growing, and I hope it will grow even more. But if you look at it in dollar terms, it hasn't grown that much.
――Do you do derivative transactions?
Tapa Elephant: You're not trading derivatives anymore, are you? I'm only doing really simple transactions. I'm not doing anything like going against each other or hedging using options.A simple style that you can put in with Dawn when it's cheap, and keep it for a few years at a long timeIt is.
I think there are inefficient parts of the market when it comes to alternatives.Apart from whether America is good or bad, it is still close to capitalism, and it is a very reasonable marketI think so.
“Disclaimers, etc.”
● The purpose of this document is to provide information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not intended to solicit investment. Customers are responsible for investing at their own discretion.
● This material has been prepared based on sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. of the information and opinions based on it. The information described in this document is as of the date the material was created and is subject to change without notice.
● Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and Mr. Tabazo are not responsible for any damage, regardless of the reason, even if any damage occurs as a result of an investment made based on this material.
● It is prohibited to reproduce, reprint, transfer, etc. part or all of this material without permission, regardless of electronic or mechanical method or purpose.
《Disclosure matters relating to conflicts of interest》
● Stock selection is based on Mr. Tabazo's own judgment, and we have not received any stock designations from third parties, including Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
● There is no serious conflict of interest between the person in charge of writing, Mr. Tabazo, and the company covered by this document.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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