[US Stock Settlement Forecast] The next test for US stocks that failed to launch!

The US stock market is sluggish at the beginning of the year 2024, but can that situation change this week when the financial season begins and each company begins announcing fourth quarter financial results and stock buyback plans?

Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at the strategy company Reynolds Strategy, said, “We are bullish on the 2024 stock market, but institutional investorsBearish attitudeAs a result, the next few monthsAn eventful developmentIt's going to be. Once this oversale is over, companies will buy back their own shares and boost stock prices,” he said.

The forecast EPS for the fourth quarter is from September 30 to December 31 last year6.8% downward correctionIt went (from $57.86 to $53.90). Normally, analysts tend to revise earnings forecasts downward during the quarter, but this time it is more than the average for the most recent 5 years (-3.5%), 10 year average (-3.3%), 15 year average (-4.2%), and 20 year average (-3.8%)The decline is large. It will also be the largest since the 3rd quarter of 2022 (also -6.8%).

What is noteworthy is that while the EPS forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised downward by 6.8%, the EPS forecast for 2024 is minimal1.3%It was revised downward (from $247.66 to $244.45).

By sector, the EPS forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 is from 9/30 to 12/31 for 9 out of 11 sectors, with healthcare (-21.3%) and materials (-13.5%) at the toprevised downward. Meanwhile, EPS predictionsUpwardly Revised SectorsisPublic utilities (+1.9%)withInformation technology (+1.7%)There are only 2 sectors.

Regarding guidance, EPS for the fourth quarter of 2023 among the S&P 500 constituent stocksBoth the number and ratio of companies issuing negative guidance are above average. The number of companies (72 companies) announcing negative EPS guidance is above the 5-year average (57 companies) and the 10-year average (62 companies).

Fourth-quarter profit compared to previous year, according to Factset research1.3% increaseIt was drastically revised from the 8% increase as of the end of September. Of the 11 sectors, 5 were year-on-year, led by telecommunications services, public welfare, and general consumer goodsIncrease profitIt is predicted. In the meantime,communication servicesCompared to the previous year, approximately42% increasewithLeading with the highest revenue growth rateI anticipate that. Meanwhile, compared to the previous yearDecrease in profitWhat is expected is 6 sectors, led by the energy, healthcare, and materials sectors.energyFrom the sharp rise in the previous fiscal year due to a rise in crude oil pricesWill it be the most drastic decrease in profitIt is predicted.

Wall Street analysts say the profits of the S&P 500 companies for 2024Surge of approximately 12%Then it's predicted. However, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg targeting market participants, the earnings forecast for the S&P 500too optimisticThe answer isTake up half, as a major concern for corporate profitabilityeconomic decelerationListed, the driving force behind this year's stock price riseIt's not an achievementIt suggests that.

Furthermore, the predicted PER (price-earnings ratio, 12 months ahead) for the S&P 500 index is approximately19.2 timesSo, it's slightly above the 5-year average of 18.9 times.

However, despite these concerns, Wall Street strategists and investors remain optimistic about the 2024 stock market rise, and about one-third of survey participants have indicated their intention to increase their exposure to the S&P 500 stock price index within the next month.