US stock market weekend review and forecast of next week's m...
US stock market weekend review and forecast of next week's market trends.
10/26/2024
1. Macro Economy
- Strong economic data: Recently released GDP and employment data in the USA have performed well, indicating a strong economic resilience. Despite the decline in inflation, the strong momentum in the job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively tight policy stance, putting some pressure on the market.
- Stable consumer spending: Consumer spending remained high in the third quarter, indicating that consumer confidence has not been significantly affected. However, with the continuous high interest rates, this expenditure may face downward risks, which may also have potential impacts on certain industries (such as retail and technology).
2. News
Earnings Season: It is currently the peak period of the earnings season in the usa, with many technology companies reporting earnings that exceeded expectations. Companies like NFLX, TSM, and TSLA have outperformed expectations, boosting market confidence. Next week, earnings reports from large technology companies such as AMD, GOOG, COIN, MSTR, META, AAPL, and AMZN are set to be released, which will trigger intense market volatility.
- Risk aversion sentiment: The tension in the Middle East and the uncertainty in US-China relations have to some extent driven risk aversion sentiment, leading to high volatility in the US stock market.
3. Policy and USA Elections
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor inflation and employment data. If Federal Reserve officials make hawkish statements in the coming weeks, it may restrain the rebound.
- Election Uncertainty: With the upcoming US election, market concerns about potential policy changes intensify, possibly affecting the volatility of financial, energy, technology, and other industries.
4. Geopolitical
- Middle East Situation: Escalating conflicts between Israel and Palestine have brought about risk aversion sentiment, increasing market volatility. Particularly in the technology sector, some companies with global supply chains, geopolitical risks have added market uncertainty.
- USA-China Relations: Trade frictions, technology restrictions, and other issues persist, potentially putting pressure on large technology stocks such as Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA, etc.
5. Fear Index (VIX)
- Changes in VIX: The VIX index remained high this week, indicating continued high market volatility expectations. However, as technology stocks rebound at resistance levels, VIX has fallen somewhat, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment. If technology stocks continue to strengthen next week, VIX may further decline.
6. Technical Analysis
Rebound at support level: SPY and QQQ received support at the hourly support level during last week's correction, demonstrating strong bullish momentum. QQQ opened higher for two consecutive trading days, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market and the gap above remains intact, showing that the rebound momentum is still present.
Closing performance: In the closing hours on Friday, QQQ and many large technology stocks stopped falling near the support level along the gap, indicating some market capital acceptance before the weekend, further consolidating the short-term rebound expectations.
Key resistance level: The gap area below QQQ is the key observation point for next week. If the gap can be maintained without filling, and continues to rise early in the week, it may indicate a short-term bullish continuation. Conversely, if the gap is filled, caution is needed for a market pullback.
7. Comprehensive Deduction
Short-term outlook: From a technical perspective, QQQ and SPY rebounded at the support level, and the bullish momentum is strong. It is expected that Monday will continue the rebound, especially with the support of better-than-expected technology stock earnings. However, attention is needed in case of profit-taking at the end of the day, which may limit the rebound height.
Medium-term outlook: If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a tightening stance, coupled with increased election uncertainty, market volatility is expected to persist, leading to a possible pattern of both long and short-term fluctuations.
Summary
Next week, the short-term outlook for the US stock market is expected to continue to rebound, especially the bullish sentiment in the technology sector remains strong. However, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's policy and geopolitical risks, volatility remains relatively high, requiring attention to key support levels and gap situations. At the same time, pay attention to the policy changes that may result from the election, which could impact individual stocks and sectors.
Disclaimer: The above content represents personal opinions only and should not be taken as any investment advice. Trading in the market carries risks, one must maintain independent thinking, plan before taking action.
10/26/2024
1. Macro Economy
- Strong economic data: Recently released GDP and employment data in the USA have performed well, indicating a strong economic resilience. Despite the decline in inflation, the strong momentum in the job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively tight policy stance, putting some pressure on the market.
- Stable consumer spending: Consumer spending remained high in the third quarter, indicating that consumer confidence has not been significantly affected. However, with the continuous high interest rates, this expenditure may face downward risks, which may also have potential impacts on certain industries (such as retail and technology).
2. News
Earnings Season: It is currently the peak period of the earnings season in the usa, with many technology companies reporting earnings that exceeded expectations. Companies like NFLX, TSM, and TSLA have outperformed expectations, boosting market confidence. Next week, earnings reports from large technology companies such as AMD, GOOG, COIN, MSTR, META, AAPL, and AMZN are set to be released, which will trigger intense market volatility.
- Risk aversion sentiment: The tension in the Middle East and the uncertainty in US-China relations have to some extent driven risk aversion sentiment, leading to high volatility in the US stock market.
3. Policy and USA Elections
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor inflation and employment data. If Federal Reserve officials make hawkish statements in the coming weeks, it may restrain the rebound.
- Election Uncertainty: With the upcoming US election, market concerns about potential policy changes intensify, possibly affecting the volatility of financial, energy, technology, and other industries.
4. Geopolitical
- Middle East Situation: Escalating conflicts between Israel and Palestine have brought about risk aversion sentiment, increasing market volatility. Particularly in the technology sector, some companies with global supply chains, geopolitical risks have added market uncertainty.
- USA-China Relations: Trade frictions, technology restrictions, and other issues persist, potentially putting pressure on large technology stocks such as Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA, etc.
5. Fear Index (VIX)
- Changes in VIX: The VIX index remained high this week, indicating continued high market volatility expectations. However, as technology stocks rebound at resistance levels, VIX has fallen somewhat, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment. If technology stocks continue to strengthen next week, VIX may further decline.
6. Technical Analysis
Rebound at support level: SPY and QQQ received support at the hourly support level during last week's correction, demonstrating strong bullish momentum. QQQ opened higher for two consecutive trading days, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market and the gap above remains intact, showing that the rebound momentum is still present.
Closing performance: In the closing hours on Friday, QQQ and many large technology stocks stopped falling near the support level along the gap, indicating some market capital acceptance before the weekend, further consolidating the short-term rebound expectations.
Key resistance level: The gap area below QQQ is the key observation point for next week. If the gap can be maintained without filling, and continues to rise early in the week, it may indicate a short-term bullish continuation. Conversely, if the gap is filled, caution is needed for a market pullback.
7. Comprehensive Deduction
Short-term outlook: From a technical perspective, QQQ and SPY rebounded at the support level, and the bullish momentum is strong. It is expected that Monday will continue the rebound, especially with the support of better-than-expected technology stock earnings. However, attention is needed in case of profit-taking at the end of the day, which may limit the rebound height.
Medium-term outlook: If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a tightening stance, coupled with increased election uncertainty, market volatility is expected to persist, leading to a possible pattern of both long and short-term fluctuations.
Summary
Next week, the short-term outlook for the US stock market is expected to continue to rebound, especially the bullish sentiment in the technology sector remains strong. However, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's policy and geopolitical risks, volatility remains relatively high, requiring attention to key support levels and gap situations. At the same time, pay attention to the policy changes that may result from the election, which could impact individual stocks and sectors.
Disclaimer: The above content represents personal opinions only and should not be taken as any investment advice. Trading in the market carries risks, one must maintain independent thinking, plan before taking action.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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