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US Stock Weekly Report (US 9/29-10/5)

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太郎丸 wrote a column · Oct 6, 2023 01:50
The Dow average continued to fall for 3 weeks in the US stock market until 10/5, and the S&P 500 continued to fall for 5 weeks. The NASDAQ continued to grow slightly while remaining flat. Assuming that the number of job offers for the US August (JOLTS US Employment Dynamics Survey) announced on the 3rd was 9.61 million, which greatly exceeded market expectations (8.8 million cases), and a tightening of US labor supply and demand was shown, observations of prolonged financial tightening by the Fed intensified. The 10-year US bond yield hit a high level of 4.81% every day for the first time in about 16 years, and the Dow average showed a decline of over 500 dollars at one point, and continued to fall drastically for 3 days. The US IT sector, which has a high PER, was sold, and the NASDAQ fell for the first time in 5 business days. Market sentiment also worsened due to a succession of hawkish statements by US Fed members, such as support for additional interest rate hikes at the November meeting and maintaining high level FF rates for a long period of time. The number of US ADP employed people in September, which was announced on the 4th, fell far short of market expectations, and the ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index in September showed a deceleration, so buyback was entered into US bonds, the rise in long-term US interest rates came to a stop, and the three major indices all rebounded. Ahead of the announcement of US employment statistics for September on the 6th, there was almost no change from the day before, even though there was a slight decline in the 3 major US indices on the 5th. The 11 major S&P 500 sectors were sold overall compared to last week. The resource sector was at the top with a price drop of 5.78%, followed by a 4.21% depreciation and a 2.67% decline in the consumption stability sector. Meanwhile, the telecommunications sector was 1.21% higher and the IT sector was 0.98% higher. Individual stocks were added to GS's “Conviction List” $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The price has risen 7.4% in the last 2 weeks, and it was 7 wins and 2 losses out of 9 business days. On the other hand, on the 5th $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$fell 4.83%, and at one point it hit a low for the first time in about two and a half years. In the face of rapid interest rate growth, the fact that the company's appeal as a defensive stock faded was viewed as bad news.
Weekly gain/fall rate of 11 major S&P 500 sectors (US 9/29 to 10/5)
Weekly gain/fall rate of 11 major S&P 500 sectors (US 9/29 to 10/5)
Forecast for next week   
In response to NY crude oil futures falling to a low for the first time in a month, one of the concerns surrounding rising US inflation has receded for now. Meanwhile, US 30-year government bond yields and US 10-year bond yields are both around 5%, and are in the high price range for the first time in 16 years. It is also expected that the US stock market will have turbulent developments depending on long-term interest rate trends. It seems that one of the factors is that QT (quantitative tightening) by the Fed has begun to take effect amid the rapid rise in US long-term interest rates, concerns that the US budget deficit will worsen, concerns that US policy interest rates will remain unchanged for a long period of time, and observations of US economic re-acceleration. The total decline in securities held by the Fed reached 1.66.7 trillion dollars from the week of 22/5/18 before the start of QT to the week of 23/10/4. While no new purchases of bonds were anticipated ahead of the actual end of the term, bond supply and demand deteriorated through bond sales by the Fed, and as a result, the US market became heavy, and US stocks were sold. Although US inflation peaked out, at the September meeting, US inflation for 2025 was revised upward, and it was shown that the time to achieve the 2% inflation target is expected to be 2026, and that the road until US inflation calms down. The rice rate hike cycle has reached its final stage, but it has been conveyed that the Fed is implicitly accepting the current high interest rate level. The balance of securities held by the Fed has still risen to 7.4 trillion dollars, and it seems that implementation of QT = rise in long-term interest rates will play a role in raising interest rates in the future.
Changes in securities held by the Fed (unit: 1 million dollars)
Changes in securities held by the Fed (unit: 1 million dollars)
Changes in total assets of the Fed (unit: 1 million dollars)
Changes in total assets of the Fed (unit: 1 million dollars)
Over the next week, in addition to the US September employment statistics (10/6), the FOMC meeting minutes held on 9/19-20 (10/12), the US 9/9 consumer prices (10/12), and the US October Michigan University Consumer Mind Index (10/13), I would like to pay attention to the World Bank/IMF Annual Meeting (9-15). In line with entering the 3Q financial results season, in addition to quarterly financial results for major financial stocks such as JPMorgan (JPM-10/13) and Wells Fargo (WFC-10/13), quarterly results for United Health Group (UNH-10/13), etc. will be announced.
 
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