US stocks vs the curse of September! Can fate be overcome? The investment strategy for September is
See above translation. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$is once again reaching a new all-time high, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and is approaching that level.
However, The rebound in August was significantly different from before.The "Magnificent Seven (M7)" that has been leading the market for the past year and a half,has not fully recovered from its slump.On the other hand, investors have flocked to interest-sensitive stocks and high-dividend stocks due to their expectations of interest rate cuts.necessities of life, real estate, and health care.In order, theThe sector with the best performance in the S&P 500 in Augustとなった。
In recent years, September has been a difficult month for the stock market. Since 1990, the S&P 500 index hasHad an average decline of 1.04%Recording an increase and the probability of ending with a rise is47%It's just a seasonal effect. This seasonal effect has been particularly evident in recent years, and the S&P 500 Index has increased by 3.9%, 4.8%, 9.3%, and 4.9% respectively in September of the past four years (2020-2023).3.9%,4.8%,9.3%,4.9%is recording a decline.
There are several speculations as to why September is a slow month for the stock market.
First, there is a tendency for Europe and the United States to take summer vacations, and returning investors tend to reassess the defensive allocation of their portfolios. Companies are formulating budget plans for the next fiscal year and discussing cost-cutting methods. As the end of the third quarter approaches, investment trusts may sell off losing stocks at the end of September to avoid listing them in their quarterly reports, or sell profitable stocks to lock in profits.
Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, said, "Indexes tend to be flat in the first half of the month and start to accumulate losses at the end of the month."
Steve Sosnick, strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, "Investors are entering a seasonally difficult period, and at the same timemany positive factors have already been priced in."and pointed out. On the other hand,Big investors like Warren Buffett continue to sell stocks.
However, this year seems to be different.The election year and the possibility of a rate cut in September bring new possibilities to the market performance in SeptemberThere is a possibility that the indicator could mistakenly issue an alarm.Investors are seeking ways to protect their portfolios from volatility.
Presidential election year
From a historical perspective,September of presidential election years tends to have relatively minimal negative impact on the stock marketIn the presidential election years since World War II, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$experienced an average decline of 0.58% in September,while the average decline rate in non-election yearswasSignificantly lower than 1.37%.Mr. Young Thomas of SoFi explained that in election years,The peak of volatility will come in mid-October, not the end of September.The market is focusing on the first direct confrontation between Mr. Harris and Mr. Trump, which will take place next week.Both candidates are expected to participate in a debate hosted by ABC News on September 10.Possibility of a rate cut in September.
In September,
This September,Investor attention is focused on the two-day meeting of the US FOMC to be held on the 17th and 18th. Before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, there are at least two important questions for investors that remain. One is whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Investors will be able to glean clues from future speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and data, including August employment statistics. In addition to the employment report to be released this Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be released on September 11th and 12th.Currently, there is a view that the Federal Reserve is achieving a "soft landing," and this expectation is to some extent reflected in stock prices (US stocks have rebounded after a decline in early August). However, the rate cut in September that investors are anticipating is increasingly seen as "selling the news."Investor attention is focused on the two-day meeting of the US FOMC to be held on the 17th and 18th. Before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, there are at least two important questions for investors that remain.One is whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points.Investors will be able to glean clues from future speeches by Federal Reserve Board members and data, including August employment statistics.In addition to the employment report to be released this Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be released on September 11th and 12th.
Currently, there is a view that the Federal Reserve is achieving a "soft landing," and this expectation is to some extent reflected in stock prices (US stocks have rebounded after a decline in early August). However, the rate cut in September that investors are anticipating is increasingly seen as "selling the news.""Selling the news"It seems like it's going to be an event.
One more thing iswhether the companies can achieve growth through other means and reduce investors' dependence on the FRB rate cuts.As the most recent important data point, the earnings reports released last week $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$are important. The drop in the stock price of Nvidia after the earnings report did not have as much impact on the overall market as expected. This revealed thatthe long-term growth story of artificial intelligence (AI) is still strongbut it is no longer sufficient to meet excessive expectations.This is another issue.Charles Schwab points out that it indicates being.
However, there are many events that could push up stock prices.
Is it the breadth of the bullish market or the bearish technical approach?
Breadth of the marketImprovements are notably seen from the dominance of "Magnificent (M7)" in the second quarter.According to Bank of America's data, since June,about 70% of US stocks have outperformed the S&P 500.In fact, since early July,M7 stocks have fallen 10.2% overallwhile the other 493 stocks of the S&P 500 have risen 4.1%Relative price of S&P 500 index vs M7 stocksis doing.
"Since 1900, the U.S. economy has had a 22.4% chance of falling into a recession... But 6 months after the Dow reached an all-time high, the probability of a recession was only 8.9%?" - Ryan Detrick
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, pointed out an interesting fact regarding the recent strong performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at a record high last Friday.
Interactive Brokersのストラテジスト、Steve Sosnick氏は、市場のボラティリティが再び急上昇する可能性があるため、投資家は $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$の下落で買い入れることで利益を得ることができると述べている。「VIX恐怖指数が15前後、もしくはそれ以下に下がった場合、私は『ボラティリティを買う(buying volatility)』戦略を採用するだろう。また、He mentioned, "Focus on value-oriented stocks that can generate a dividend relatively high and support a rich cash flow, while enjoying a yield of about 5%."During the summer vacation in Western countries, there is a tendency to take a break, which often leads to a lower average trading volume and lower volatility from June to August.Volatility trading strategy"When the vacation is over, portfolio managers and traders will"
Focus on value-oriented stocks, especially those with abundant cash flow that can support relatively high dividends."
Enjoy the profits during this time."Volatility and trading volume tend to be lower."After the vacation, portfolio managers and traders"Rebalancing the investment portfolio.There is a tendency to unwind some positions and free up space to hold new positions. Such concentrated position adjustment periods often lead to increased market volatility.Historically, the VIX index tends to rise from August and typically peaks in October.
Citigroup analyzed data since 1928 and found that the average volatility of the S&P500 index in September is 1.5 points higher than in August, and will be further 2.5 points higher in October.It was found that the current average volatility in September is 1.5 points higher than August, and will be further 2.5 points higher in October, based on Citigroup's analysis of data since 1928 on the S&P500 index.has been revealed.
Currently, on Wall Street The "VIX Fear Index" has fallen to 15.Some analysts are pointing out that the S&P500's short-term implied volatility has significantly decreased from its peak.They suggest that when the VIX index falls to around 15 or below, investors can hedge the risk of their portfolios by betting on an increase in volatility.This bet can be made using Single-leg options and the low-cost hedge tool, the VIX call spread.
The VIX call spread strategy involves purchasing VIX call options with a low exercise price and selling VIX call options with a high exercise price, both having the same expiration date. This way, investors can profit from a rise in the VIX while also reducing costs by selling higher exercise price call options.
● High-dividend stock strategy
In general, the investment value of high-dividend sectors such as utilities and essential products becomes prominent in a low-interest environment.high-dividend sectors such as utilities and essential products become prominent.。市場のボラティリティが高まる可能性に直面している場合、これらのセクターで安定した配当成長と高いフリー・キャッシュフロー・イールドを持つ銘柄は、より強力な防御的特性を有する。さらに、これらの株式のバリュエーションが相対的に低い場合、安全のマージンも高くなる。Villere & Coのポートフォリオ・マネージャー、Sandy Villere氏は「9月に通常以上のボラティリティが予想される場合、攻めの銘柄を売り、防衛的な銘柄を買う時期だ」と述べている。
出所：moomoo、Business Insider、Bloomberg
This article uses auto-translation partially.
ーMoomoo News Sherry
This article uses auto-translation partially.
ーMoomoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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