US Traders Closely Watching the "Sahm Rule" Indicator

The "Sahm Rule" has become a key focus in the market. When the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its low of the previous 12 months, it triggers a recession signal. This rule has accurately predicted recessions since 1970. The June figure for the Sahm Rule was 0.43, close to the 0.5 warning line.