V-shaped recovery due to strong performance for semiconductors and AI! There is plenty of room for stock price review! Pay attention to the 3 stocks that were revised upward as early as the 1st quarter [financial results summary]
Financial results for major semiconductor-related brands announced from July to early AugustGrowth for AI-related marketsstands out, making us expect a V-shaped recovery in business performance. The Tokyo stock market was hit by a major crash at the beginning of August, but there is also a rush to buy related stocks. Japan timeAt 5:20 a.m. on 8/29, a major US semiconductor company $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Financial results announcement forThere is, and it is expected that not only domestic-related stocks but also the Nikkei Stock Average itself will be affected.7 major semiconductor-related stock companies with high weight (composition ratio) in the Nikkei AverageWe confirmed the financial results points, the current position of stock prices, analysts' views, etc. (Note: Only Lasertech announced 4Q/full year for the fiscal year ending 24/6; others announced 1Q for the fiscal year ending 25/3)
Sales for generative AI etc. are strong, and as early as the 1Q stage $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$ 、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$The 3 companies made an upward correction.
by the United StatesConcerns about tightening export restrictions to ChinaWhile it was smoldering, a major crash occurred on 8/5, where the Nikkei Stock Average recorded the biggest drop ever.China's sales ratio is low $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$Once stock prices such as fall, they have been firmly bought back, and the gain/fall rate for the current month is positive. Lasertech's financial results announced on 8/7 were well received. Meanwhile,China has a high ratio and is expected to be directly affected by export restrictions $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$It has performed well, but the gain/fall rate for the current month has been greatly negative.
Sales ratios in China start in descending order of those that have been published $Advantest (6857.JP)$（25.95%）、 $Disco (6146.JP)$（32%）、 $Socionext (6526.JP)$（34%）、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$（46%）、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$（49.9%). Domestic analysts say”Lasertech is largely unaffected by regulationsAs”Short-term evacuation destinationsIt points out the possibility that it will become.
Semiconductor-related stocks were soft even before the crash, but as stocks that are easily bought back by market participantsSales to China are low $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$In addition toHigh growth potential in the medium to long termthrough $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$has been mentioned. According to JPMorgan's report, the top 2 stocks with positive investors in the Asian region as of mid-July $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$It was. Tokyo Electron's performance will grow over the medium to long term also due to high confidenceStocks you should aim for a bargainIt seems that it was also seen as.
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) predicts that sales of Tokyo Electron's AI computational broadband memory (HBM) and manufacturing equipment for normal DRAM will expand strongly.Order in which the divergence from the 8/15 closing price to the analysts' average target stock price is large and lateOK $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$(The divergence58.83%）、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$（41.18%）、 $Disco (6146.JP)$（38.59%）、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$（29.81%）、 $Socionext (6526.JP)$（20.56%）、 $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$（19.64%）、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$（17.08%It has become).
◆ $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$
・Both 1Q sales, operating profit, and net profitExceeded market expectations。
・Consolidated financial results for the full yearMajor increase correction。Net profit is expected to increase 31% from the previous fiscal year to 478 billion yen.
・Advanced products for AI in Taiwan, US investment in logic, and Chinese investment ahead of schedule contributed.
・China's sales ratio is 49.9%, about half of the totalIt became. The second half will decrease compared to the first half due to the effects of demand moving ahead of schedule.
・Rapid increase in inquiries for advanced packaging and testing — there are a wide range of requests for coating, etching, batch deposition, bonding, wafer probers, etc.
・A foreign analyst said, “Pre-process manufacturing equipment temporarily declined in 23,In the regrowth phase after '24, we can benefit from investment expansion centered on cutting edgeProbably. In addition to coater developers, which already have a high market share, attention is also being paid to the possibility of increasing share in etching equipment.”
◆ $Advantest (6857.JP)$
・The world leader in semiconductor inspection equipment (testers). $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$supplier of.
・Full year planSignificant upward correction。It greatly exceeded market expectations。
・What is the sales ratio in China26%and relatively low.
・Demand for highly profitable SoC testers for HPC/AI is rapidly expanding, and foreign analysts”Good financial results that drastically change the outlook for SoC testersIt was evaluated as”.
・Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts”While the performance of GPUs for AI is rapidly improving, the level of difficulty in manufacturing has increased, and test times have been prolongedI'm doing it. In order to speed up the timing of introducing new products to meet customer requirements, semiconductor manufacturersTesting times are being shortened, and more testers are neededIt's going to be.” and explanation.
・Domestic analysts”My first impression was positive. The upward correction was faster than expected” he commented.
・The world leader in semiconductor inspection equipment (testers). $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$supplier of.
・Full year planSignificant upward correction。It greatly exceeded market expectations。
・What is the sales ratio in China26%and relatively low.
・Demand for highly profitable SoC testers for HPC/AI is rapidly expanding, and foreign analysts”Good financial results that drastically change the outlook for SoC testersIt was evaluated as”.
・Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts”While the performance of GPUs for AI is rapidly improving, the level of difficulty in manufacturing has increased, and test times have been prolongedI'm doing it. In order to speed up the timing of introducing new products to meet customer requirements, semiconductor manufacturersTesting times are being shortened, and more testers are neededIt's going to be.” and explanation.
・Domestic analysts”My first impression was positive. The upward correction was faster than expected” he commented.
◆ $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$
・World leader in vinyl chloride resins and semiconductor silicon wafers. Photoresists too.
・Price increases are progressing in the PVC business. Demand for housing in the US is strong even under high interest rates. The United States has raised prices 4 times this year.
・Demand for wafers has also bottomed out.
・In order to expand shareholder returns, we have implemented a “rearrangement” to exchange internal reserves for yen in the form of dividends from overseas subsidiariesI did it.
・Foreign securities analysts expressed the idea that “while accelerating capital investment projects with new products, etc., a virtuous cycle of growth and return can be expected due to heightened shareholder return capacity due to abundant free cash flow.” The implementation of the repatriation also gave a positive impression.
・World leader in vinyl chloride resins and semiconductor silicon wafers. Photoresists too.
・Price increases are progressing in the PVC business. Demand for housing in the US is strong even under high interest rates. The United States has raised prices 4 times this year.
・Demand for wafers has also bottomed out.
・In order to expand shareholder returns, we have implemented a “rearrangement” to exchange internal reserves for yen in the form of dividends from overseas subsidiariesI did it.
・Foreign securities analysts expressed the idea that “while accelerating capital investment projects with new products, etc., a virtuous cycle of growth and return can be expected due to heightened shareholder return capacity due to abundant free cash flow.” The implementation of the repatriation also gave a positive impression.
◆ $Lasertec (6920.JP)$
・Mask defect inspection equipment for advanced semiconductors is a pillar.
・In the consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/6, sales were 213.5 billion yen, up 39.7% from the previous fiscal year, and net profit was 59 billion yen, up 28%, both of which hit record highs. Inspection equipment for AI semiconductors was doing well, and the depreciation of the yen and the advance of equipment deliveries also contributed.
・Domestic securities analysts talk about regulations against China”Since our company is hardly affected, it seems to be viewed as relatively positive” and”Short-term evacuation destinationsIt can be a candidate for.” However, after October, the competition $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It was necessary to pay attention to negative materials in financial results, etc.
・A report suspecting fraudulent accounting was issued by a short sale investor in June, but the investigation report was made public, and the fraudulent accounting was once again denied.
・Mask defect inspection equipment for advanced semiconductors is a pillar.
・In the consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/6, sales were 213.5 billion yen, up 39.7% from the previous fiscal year, and net profit was 59 billion yen, up 28%, both of which hit record highs. Inspection equipment for AI semiconductors was doing well, and the depreciation of the yen and the advance of equipment deliveries also contributed.
・Domestic securities analysts talk about regulations against China”Since our company is hardly affected, it seems to be viewed as relatively positive” and”Short-term evacuation destinationsIt can be a candidate for.” However, after October, the competition $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It was necessary to pay attention to negative materials in financial results, etc.
・A report suspecting fraudulent accounting was issued by a short sale investor in June, but the investigation report was made public, and the fraudulent accounting was once again denied.
◆ $Disco (6146.JP)$
・World leader in cutting and polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components.
・What is the sales ratio in China32%。
・The 1Q financial results and guidance for the second quarter fell short of market expectations, and stock prices declined after the announcement.
・What is a foreign securities analyst”Demand for generative AI is increasing, although sluggish continues to be sluggish for post-processing. DISCO, which has a high market share in grinders and dicers for generative AI, is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future” It was said.
・Domestic securities analysts pointed out that the outlook for 2Q shipments, which remained flat from 1Q, is conservative. Also, we maintain the view that sales to HBM will decline in the fiscal year ending 26/3,”Even if HBM sales decline, demand for expensive equipment for NAND bonding technology can be expected to expand” It was said.
・World leader in cutting and polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components.
・What is the sales ratio in China32%。
・The 1Q financial results and guidance for the second quarter fell short of market expectations, and stock prices declined after the announcement.
・What is a foreign securities analyst”Demand for generative AI is increasing, although sluggish continues to be sluggish for post-processing. DISCO, which has a high market share in grinders and dicers for generative AI, is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future” It was said.
・Domestic securities analysts pointed out that the outlook for 2Q shipments, which remained flat from 1Q, is conservative. Also, we maintain the view that sales to HBM will decline in the fiscal year ending 26/3,”Even if HBM sales decline, demand for expensive equipment for NAND bonding technology can be expected to expand” It was said.
◆ $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$
・Sales to the US have declined, but sales to China have increased.China's sales ratio is as high as 46%. 49% is expected in the first half.
・The full-year earnings forecast was revised upward, but sales, operating profit, and net profit forecasts all fell short of market expectations.
・What is a foreign analyst”It is reassuring that high profit margins were planned for the second half of the fiscal year, when demand in China is expected to fall” It was said.
・Sales to the US have declined, but sales to China have increased.China's sales ratio is as high as 46%. 49% is expected in the first half.
・The full-year earnings forecast was revised upward, but sales, operating profit, and net profit forecasts all fell short of market expectations.
・What is a foreign analyst”It is reassuring that high profit margins were planned for the second half of the fiscal year, when demand in China is expected to fall” It was said.
◆ $Socionext (6526.JP)$
・Fujitsu and Panasonic logic semiconductors are integrated. We supply advanced products through Fabless.
・1QOperating margin increased to 19.4%。
・Sales to China are 34%. As sales of special demand decline, the ratio to China is expected to decrease in the future.
・Fujitsu and Panasonic logic semiconductors are integrated. We supply advanced products through Fabless.
・1QOperating margin increased to 19.4%。
・Sales to China are 34%. As sales of special demand decline, the ratio to China is expected to decrease in the future.
―MooMoo News Kathy
Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, IR materials from various companies, moomoo
Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, IR materials from various companies, moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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