Semiconductors and AI are performing well, showing a V-shaped recovery! There is plenty of room for stock price revisions! Keep an eye on these three stocks that have already raised their earnings forecasts in the first quarter [earnings summary].
In the earnings announcements of major semiconductor-related stocks released from July to early AugustGrowth in AI-related businesses has been prominent, raising expectations for a V-shaped recovery in performance.Although the Tokyo stock market experienced a major crash in early August, there has also been observed buying opportunities for related stocks.On August 29th at 5:20 AM Japan time, the earnings report of the US semiconductor giant $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$will have an impact not only on domestic related stocks but also on the Nikkei Stock Average itself.It is expected that the earnings report will affect not only domestic related stocks but also the Nikkei Stock Average itself.These are the main semiconductor-related stocks with a high weight (composition ratio) in the Nikkei Stock Average.I checked the key points of the settlement and the current stock price, as well as the analysts' views. (Note: Only Laser Tech announced the 4th quarter and full-year results for the fiscal year ending June 2024, others announced the 1st quarter results for the fiscal year ending March 2025)
Generating good performance for AI and others, already at the 1st quarter stage $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$ 、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$Three companies revised upward in the 1st quarter
By the U.S.Concerns over strengthened export regulations to China.Amidst stagnation, on August 5th, the Nikkei Stock Average experienced a major plunge, recording the largest decline in history.Stock prices such as those with low China sales ratios initially dropped, but have been bought back firmly, resulting in a positive monthly rate of increase and decrease. Laser Tech's financial results announced on August 7th were well received. $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$Although the stock price of companies like 日本 experienced a temporary decline, it has been consistently bought back, resulting in a positive monthly rise and fall rate. LaserTech's earnings release on August 7th was also well received. On the other hand, The company with high China ratios is believed to be more susceptible to the direct impact of export regulations. $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$Their performance is good, but they have a significantly negative monthly rate of increase and decrease.
The China revenue ratio, from the lowest to highest as reported, is: $Advantest (6857.JP)$（25.95%）、 $Disco (6146.JP)$（32%.）、 $Socionext (6526.JP)$（34% hope to buy an electric vehicle.）、 $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$（46%）、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$（49.9%Japanese analysts believe that LaserTech is nearly unaffected by regulationsand could become a short-term safe haven.The short-term refugeSemiconductor-related stocks were weak before the crash, but market participants consider them easy to repurchase.
as they tend to be repurchased.Analysts in Japan have pointed out the potential of LaserTech as nearly unaffected by regulations to become a short-term safe haven due to the low revenue from China. $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$In addition,High growth potential in the medium to long term.to $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$According to JP Morgan's report, the top 2 stocks that Asian investors were positive about as of mid-July were $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$Tokyo Electron, due to its high conviction in the long-term growth prospects,A stock worth considering buying on dips.It seems that it was seen as well.
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) expects Tokyo Electron's sales of AI computing wide-bandwidth memory (HBM) and manufacturing equipment for regular DRAM to expand strongly.The deviation from the average analyst target stock price from the closing price on August 15th is large, in the order of being behind.However, $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$(Deviation is58.83%)）、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$（41.18%）、 $Disco (6146.JP)$（38.59%）、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$（29.81%）、 $Socionext (6526.JP)$（20.56％）、 $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$（19.64％）、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$（17.08％) is.
◆ $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$
- 1Q revenue, operating profit, and net profitmarket expectations.。
- Full-year consolidated performanceSignificantly revised upward.。It is expected that net profit will increase by 31% to 478 billion yen compared to the previous year.
- Contributions were made from advanced products for AI in Taiwan, investments for logic in the US, and accelerated investments in China.
・The revenue ratio in China accounts for approximately half of the total at 49.9%.In the second half of the year, there will be a decrease compared to the first half due to the impact of accelerated demand.
- There is a sharp increase in inquiries for advanced packaging and testing - including spin coating, etching, batch deposition, bonding, and wafer probing, etc.
- Foreign analysts stated that "in 2023, the production equipment for the front-end process temporarily decreased, but...In the post-2024 growth phase, we can benefit from expanded investment focusing on cutting-edge technology.It will. In addition to KOTA Developer, which already has a high share, attention is also focused on the potential for increased market share in etching equipment.
◆ $Advantest (6857.JP)$
- A world leader in semiconductor inspection equipment (tester). $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$supplier.
- Substantially raise the full-year planUpwardly revised substantially。Personal consumption also exceeded expectations. In response, the USD/JPY was rapidly bought back.。
- The proportion of China's revenue is26%relatively low.
- The demand for high-profit HPC/AI SoC testers is rapidly expanding, and foreign analysts expect a favorable earnings report that will significantly change the outlook for SoC testers.Good earnings reports significantly change the outlook for SoC testers.The analyst evaluated it as "".
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts said, ""While the performance of GPUs for AI is rapidly improving, the manufacturing difficulty is increasing, and testing time is becoming longer.I'm doing it. Semiconductor manufacturers are accelerating the timing of new product launches to meet customer demands.They are aiming to shorten the testing time, which will require more testers. explains.
Domestic analysts said, "".The first impression is positive. It was an upward revision earlier than expected."commented.
- A world leader in semiconductor inspection equipment (tester). $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$supplier.
- Substantially raise the full-year planUpwardly revised substantially。Personal consumption also exceeded expectations. In response, the USD/JPY was rapidly bought back.。
- The proportion of China's revenue is26%relatively low.
- The demand for high-profit HPC/AI SoC testers is rapidly expanding, and foreign analysts expect a favorable earnings report that will significantly change the outlook for SoC testers.Good earnings reports significantly change the outlook for SoC testers.The analyst evaluated it as "".
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analysts said, ""While the performance of GPUs for AI is rapidly improving, the manufacturing difficulty is increasing, and testing time is becoming longer.I'm doing it. Semiconductor manufacturers are accelerating the timing of new product launches to meet customer demands.They are aiming to shorten the testing time, which will require more testers. explains.
Domestic analysts said, "".The first impression is positive. It was an upward revision earlier than expected."commented.
◆ $Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.JP)$
- PVC resin, world leader in semiconductor silicon wafers. Also in photoresists.
- The PVC business is moving towards price increases. Despite high interest rates, the US housing demand remains strong. The US has implemented four price increases this year.
- The demand for wafers has also bottomed out.
・In order to expand shareholder returns, the company will implement "repatriation," which involves converting internal reserves into yen through dividends from overseas subsidiaries.Done.
- Foreign securities analysts expressed their expectation that while accelerating investment in new products and other equipment projects, the high level of free cash flow allows for increased shareholder returns, creating a positive cycle of growth and return. They also had a positive impression of repatriation implementation.
- PVC resin, world leader in semiconductor silicon wafers. Also in photoresists.
- The PVC business is moving towards price increases. Despite high interest rates, the US housing demand remains strong. The US has implemented four price increases this year.
- The demand for wafers has also bottomed out.
・In order to expand shareholder returns, the company will implement "repatriation," which involves converting internal reserves into yen through dividends from overseas subsidiaries.Done.
- Foreign securities analysts expressed their expectation that while accelerating investment in new products and other equipment projects, the high level of free cash flow allows for increased shareholder returns, creating a positive cycle of growth and return. They also had a positive impression of repatriation implementation.
◆ $Lasertec (6920.JP)$
- The pillar is the mask defect inspection device for advanced semiconductors.
- Consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending in June 2024: revenue increased by 39.7% compared to the previous period to 213.5 billion yen, net profit increased by 28% to 59 billion yen, both reaching record highs. The AI semiconductor inspection device performed well, and the depreciation of the yen and earlier delivery of the devices contributed to the results.
- Domestic securities analysts stated, regarding regulations related to China, "since we are hardly affected, it is expected that we will be relatively positively viewed."They also mentioned, "as a short-term refuge.""The short-term refugeIt was considered as a candidate. However, since October, attention should be paid to negative factors such as competition's $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$earnings announcements.
- In June, a report suspecting fraudulent accounting was issued by short-selling investors, but after publishing the investigation report, it once again denied fraudulent accounting.
- The pillar is the mask defect inspection device for advanced semiconductors.
- Consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending in June 2024: revenue increased by 39.7% compared to the previous period to 213.5 billion yen, net profit increased by 28% to 59 billion yen, both reaching record highs. The AI semiconductor inspection device performed well, and the depreciation of the yen and earlier delivery of the devices contributed to the results.
- Domestic securities analysts stated, regarding regulations related to China, "since we are hardly affected, it is expected that we will be relatively positively viewed."They also mentioned, "as a short-term refuge.""The short-term refugeIt was considered as a candidate. However, since October, attention should be paid to negative factors such as competition's $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$earnings announcements.
- In June, a report suspecting fraudulent accounting was issued by short-selling investors, but after publishing the investigation report, it once again denied fraudulent accounting.
◆ $Disco (6146.JP)$
- The world leader in cutting and polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components.
- The proportion of China's revenue is32%.。
- First-quarter earnings and second-quarter guidance fell below market expectations, leading to a decline in the stock price after the announcement.
Foreign securities analystsDemand for AI for generation AI is increasing, while the outlook for the latter process remains sluggish. Disco, which has a high market share in generation AI grinders and dies, is expected to continue to experience high growth."JP Morgan sees potential'",
- Domestic securities analysts point out that the outlook for flat second-quarter shipments following the first quarter is conservative. Additionally, while maintaining the view that HBM sales will decrease in the fiscal year ending March 2026, there is an expectation for an expansion in demand for high-priced equipment for NAND bonding technology even if HBM experiences a decrease in revenue.- Even if HBM experiences a decline in revenue, an expansion in demand for high-priced equipment for NAND bonding technology is expected."JP Morgan sees potential'",
- The world leader in cutting and polishing equipment for semiconductors and electronic components.
- The proportion of China's revenue is32%.。
- First-quarter earnings and second-quarter guidance fell below market expectations, leading to a decline in the stock price after the announcement.
Foreign securities analystsDemand for AI for generation AI is increasing, while the outlook for the latter process remains sluggish. Disco, which has a high market share in generation AI grinders and dies, is expected to continue to experience high growth."JP Morgan sees potential'",
- Domestic securities analysts point out that the outlook for flat second-quarter shipments following the first quarter is conservative. Additionally, while maintaining the view that HBM sales will decrease in the fiscal year ending March 2026, there is an expectation for an expansion in demand for high-priced equipment for NAND bonding technology even if HBM experiences a decrease in revenue.- Even if HBM experiences a decline in revenue, an expansion in demand for high-priced equipment for NAND bonding technology is expected."JP Morgan sees potential'",
◆ $Screen Holdings (7735.JP)$
- Sales to the United States have decreased, but sales to China have increased.- The sales ratio in China is high at 46%.- We expect a ratio of 49% in the first half of the year.
- We have revised our full-year performance forecast upward, but both revenue, operating profit, and net profit forecasts fell below market expectations.
- Foreign analysts say, "Even in the second half, with expectations of a decline in Chinese demand, the fact that a high profit margin was planned is reassuring.""JP Morgan sees potential'",
- Sales to the United States have decreased, but sales to China have increased.- The sales ratio in China is high at 46%.- We expect a ratio of 49% in the first half of the year.
- We have revised our full-year performance forecast upward, but both revenue, operating profit, and net profit forecasts fell below market expectations.
- Foreign analysts say, "Even in the second half, with expectations of a decline in Chinese demand, the fact that a high profit margin was planned is reassuring.""JP Morgan sees potential'",
◆ $Socionext (6526.JP)$
Fujitsu and Panasonic's logic semiconductors are integrated. Supplying cutting-edge products through fabless.
・1st quarterOperating margin increased to 19.4%.。
・Revenue from China accounts for 34%.Due to the decrease in special demand sales, the proportion of revenue from China is expected to decrease in the future.
Fujitsu and Panasonic's logic semiconductors are integrated. Supplying cutting-edge products through fabless.
・1st quarterOperating margin increased to 19.4%.。
・Revenue from China accounts for 34%.Due to the decrease in special demand sales, the proportion of revenue from China is expected to decrease in the future.
-moomoo News Kathy
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, Bloomberg, various IR materials, moomoo
Source: Nikkei Shimbun, Bloomberg, various IR materials, moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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