Vanguard buys the dollar, and the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is seen as excessive.
As expected from Vanguard ✌️
⇨Resolve the short position in the dollar built in July
⇨The US economy is not weak enough to justify a rate cut aimed at avoiding a downturn
Vanguard, one of the world's largest asset management companies, is buying the dollar this week based on the view that the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is excessive.
The company, which holds active management funds totaling 1.7 trillion dollars (about 241 trillion yen), has resolved its short position in the dollar built in July. This is because they expect the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to be less aggressive than what the market has priced in. According to Ares Koutney, the Chief International Interest Rate Officer, it doesn't matter whether the rate cut on the 18th is 0.25 or 0.5 points.
"Although the short position in the dollar has accumulated significantly, the indicators in the USA are still strong. Unless the indicators deteriorate significantly in the future, Mr. Courtney believes that the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be less than the market expects."
The swap market has priced in a total of 114 basis points (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) interest rate cuts towards the end of the year. Mr. Courtney believes that the US economy is not weak enough to justify interest rate cuts aimed at avoiding a recession.
⇨The US economy is not weak enough to justify a rate cut aimed at avoiding a downturn
Vanguard, one of the world's largest asset management companies, is buying the dollar this week based on the view that the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is excessive.
The company, which holds active management funds totaling 1.7 trillion dollars (about 241 trillion yen), has resolved its short position in the dollar built in July. This is because they expect the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to be less aggressive than what the market has priced in. According to Ares Koutney, the Chief International Interest Rate Officer, it doesn't matter whether the rate cut on the 18th is 0.25 or 0.5 points.
"Although the short position in the dollar has accumulated significantly, the indicators in the USA are still strong. Unless the indicators deteriorate significantly in the future, Mr. Courtney believes that the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be less than the market expects."
The swap market has priced in a total of 114 basis points (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) interest rate cuts towards the end of the year. Mr. Courtney believes that the US economy is not weak enough to justify interest rate cuts aimed at avoiding a recession.
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米国ETF（NVDU、TSLL、TNA、SOXL）、投資信託（FANG、レバFANG、TOP10）、日本ETF（1579日経レバ、2644半導体）等運用✌️
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