Wall Street is reviewing interest rate cut forecasts one after another! What are investment opportunities created by declining US interest rate observations?
In response to last week's US CPI and unexpected growth and expansion in retail sales this week,The movement to review interest rate cut forecasts for major banks on Wall Street has spread. Goldman Sachs is forecasting US interest rate cuts this year from 32 timesChanged to Barclays1 timeOnly Bankame and Deutsche BankOnce in DecemberIt showed the outlook that it was the only one. Both banks have conventionally anticipated that the reduction in US interest rates will begin in June. Deutsche Bank further said that when future inflation data disappoints expectations of interest rate cuts or when election results lead to fiscal policies that worsen inflation,Interest rates will not be cut until 2025He pointed out that there is also a possibility.
At the market“Don't go against the Fed” to “doubt the Fed”has become the password. Forecasts for when and how many interest rate cuts will start are nowThe fastest 9 month theory is the most powerfulIt becomes. The maximum number of times is 2 times,Mainstream onceAs a result, the theory that interest rate cuts will be postponed by the end of the year is also increasing. Investors need to maintain a cautious stance and determine how a decrease in interest rate cuts will ultimately affect the stock market.
What is the marketInflation trading continues again, represented by copperindustrial metalsI see that there is room for further growth. According to analysts, the bullish commodity market isThe Fed's interest rate cut observation recedesandImproved global demandIt is said that it is supported by
・Gold: Wall Street is still bullish on gold! What are notable investment opportunities?
In April, gold marks its first milestoneBreak through 2,400 dollars per troy ounceHistoric highs have been updated one after another. What is the record rise in gold pricesUS inflation is rekindling, the tense situation in the Middle East, etc.geopolitical risk、Financial instability due to the US presidential election、Investor FOMO(Fear of being left behind) It is due to a combination of factors. Many analysts believe that a bull market for gold is at leastWill continue until the second half of this yearI'm watching it. What about Wall StreetTarget stock prices for gold have been raised one after another. Goldman Sachs2700 dollarsWhat about Bankame3000 dollarsUBS is even more ambitious4000 dollarsThat's the forecast. Analysts believe that gold-related stocks are continuing their upward momentum. The related stocks are as follows.
Regarding related stocks, $Japan Pure Chemical(4973.JP$30% year to date, $Mitsubishi Materials(5711.JP$is 24%, $SPDR® Gold Shares(1326.JP$has risen 25%.
・Copper: Are AI data centers a new growth point? Will copper prices reach 10500 dollars/ton
This year, global copper prices continued to rise, and London copper broke through 9,000 dollars per ton and recorded a new high since April last year. Copper-related stocks and ETFs are also doing well in the US stock market. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US$In “GTC 2024”Not just the AI chip market、Copper cables used in chips are also drawing attention. JPMorgan analysts are also seeing NVIDIA switch short-distance data transmission in AI data centers from optical fibers to copper cables,Suggests a significant increase in copper demand、Boost the stock prices of copper-related stocksand predictions. With the rapid evolution of AI, demand for copper has increased drastically at Morgan Stanley, and in particularAI data centers are a new growth pointNow, it is predicted that copper prices will reach 10,500 dollars/ton in the fourth quarter of '24.
Regarding related stocks, $Southern Copper(SCCO.US$33% year to date $Taseko Mines(TGB.US$is 77%, $Ero Copper(ERO.US$is 27%, $Hudbay Minerals(HBM.US$is 37%, $Freeport-McMoRan(FCX.US$has risen 16%.
・Energy stocks: AI and geopolitical risks that consume large amounts of electricity will further boost energy stock prices
As crude oil prices rise, in the US stock market,Energy stocks are becoming the “leading players” getting more attention than technology stocks. The reason why energy stocks are attracting attention in the market is that the global economy exceeds expectationsStrong demand for oilThe fact that it has becomeProduction cuts due to OPEC+due to geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflictSupply chain obstructionIt is seen that there is.
Furthermore, in order to respond to the rapid development of AIRequires large amounts of electricityTherefore, global energy demand is expected to increase even more rapidly in the next few years. According to LPL Financial's report,The energy sector's revised performance in March surpassed all S&P 500 sectors. Rosenberg said the recent rise in crude oil prices means improved performance for oil refining companies and increased sales for oil development companies.
・US high-tech stocks: re-selected as an “refuge destination” for investors
As US bonds were hit by drastic oversales, major high-tech stocks were once again selected as “evacuation destinations” for investors. The market sees that these companies' strong cash flows indicate resistance to market declines.
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg
ー MooMoo News Sherry
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
