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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is leaning towards the dovish faction due to the cooling of the economy and the progress of inflation.
Turning to the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said there are signs that consumer prices will resume disinflation.
The remarks made at the Central Bank Forum held in Portugal were somewhat dovish, even though they were trying to balance things as usual. It also stated that there is a “better balance” between inflation and labor market risks.
“The economy is slowly cooling down, the labor market is gradually cooling down, inflation is progressing, the unemployment rate is 4%, and the growth rate is 2%. President Powell said, “It's the kind of situation we want.”
After this event, the forecast that interest rate cuts of 1/4 point would be implemented in September rose by about 5 points. FF interest rate futures currently estimate the possibility that interest rate cuts will be implemented after the September meeting at around 70%. The possibility that three interest rate cuts will be implemented by the end of 2024 has exceeded 20%.
As far as today's data is concerned, the labor market continues to stagnate.The May Recruitment/Turnover Trend Survey (JOLTS) was 8.1 million peopleSo, it exceeded expectations and exceeded the downward revised value of 7.9 million people in April.
The retirement rate is stable at 2.2%, and the dismissal rate is stable at 1%.
Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, said, “The leisure/service industry saw the biggest decrease in the number of job offers, and the number of job offers in the lodging/food service industry decreased by 147,000 people. It is clear that state and local governments are going against the overall recruitment trend, and the number of job offers in May increased compared to the previous month.”
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