Wall Street Today | Wall Street Gearing Up for Fed's 'Hawkish Pause'

Starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and ending with the Bank of Japan two days later, monetary policy will be determined at key meetings across half of the Group of 20. U.S. officials set out at a theme at Jackson Hole in August: Rates will likely stay higher for longer.

With the Fed widely expected to keep rates on hold this week, traders will be focused on the so-called dot plot summary of economic forecasts. The two main questions are whether policymakers will retain their projections for one more 25 basis-point hike by year-end — and how much easing they are penciling in for 2024.

It’s arguably the biggest economic question right now: Are these higher interest rates here to stay? In textbook jargon, it all comes down to R-Star (R*) -- the long-term neutral interest rate that keeps inflation steady at around 2%.

The post-COVID price spike shattered the calm, spurring a debate among economists, central bankers, and bond traders about the future of inflation and interest rates – with real implications for a world saddled with about $300 trillion in debt. If central banks conclude that R* is now higher, they'll also need to keep their benchmark rates more elevated.

Global oil benchmark Brent paused its rally toward $95 a barrel after Saudi officials doubted the outlook for demand.

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, speaking at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, said  Saudi Aramco lowered its estimate for 2030 demand. While OPEC+ curbs have undoubtedly tightened global supplies, oil’s ascent into overbought territory has left the market vulnerable to a correction.

The union's initial tactics won't put much of a dent in the economy for now. The number of employees who could be potentially involved is still quite small -- less than 0.1% of the entire U.S. workforce -- and the automakers have built up their inventory of new cars ahead of the strike.

Instacart, officially Maplebear, seeks to raise as much as $660 million Monday at a more than $9 billion valuation and begin trading Tuesday.