Wall Street Today | S&P Makes Another Record After Soft Retail Before Inflation Friday

In economic news, US retail sales fell 0.8% in January, versus the 0.2% decrease expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, following the previous month's 0.4% gain. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell to 212,000 in the week ended Feb. 10 from an upwardly revised 220,000 in the previous week, compared with expectations for 220,000 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

US industrial production declined 0.1% in January, compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, following a downwardly revised flat reading in December.

U.S. retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in January from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The larger-than-expected loss came after a strong round of holiday shopping in December, which the report revised to a 0.4 gain%.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated that retail sales slipped a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January from the prior month. Excluding automobile sales, they think sales rose a bit, gaining 0.2%.

Behind the weakness, analysts saw two factors that could push sales lower than the consensus forecast. The first was technical: The seasonal adjustment the Commerce Department will apply to January's sales will be much less supportive than in years past. The second was the cold weather that spread across much of the U.S. last month, which might have significantly weighed on sales.

Sales typically fall in January from December by a lot. In December, holiday shopping is in full swing, and in January, consumers reset. Based on historical patterns, the Commerce Department adjusts for this to discern the underlying trend.

Some economists expected those adjustments to Thursday's data would be unforgiving. "In contrast to December, the seasonal factor for the upcoming January data looks unusually 'harsh,' which all else equal should generate weaker seasonally adjusted sales," wrote Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. He projected a 0.9% decline.

Oil futures headed higher on Thursday, with U.S. prices on track to score a gain for the week as supply uncertainty tied to the Middle East helped to offset pressure from rising U.S. crude inventories and production. The International Energy Agency stuck to its forecast for a sharp slowdown in oil demand growth this year.

West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery CL.1 CLH24 rose 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $77.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after losing 1.6% on Wednesday. Prices for the contract were trading 0.9% higher for the week so far.

Oil prices "remain very volatile, and last week's unexpected and substantial inventory build," reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, added to that, said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

"It's understandable why oil prices are so volatile," he said. "There's tremendous uncertainty around the Middle East, the economy, and interest rates generating these large moves."

Within the Mag Seven, companies grappled for attention Thursday. Tesla rose 6% by the end of the day; without much news, the stock recaptured $200/share. Nvidia meanwhile beat out Alphabet for a position on the market cap leaderboard, while Apple announced a new AI tool that would Rivbal Microsoft's Copilot. Nvidia is due to post earnings on Wednesday, Feb 21, the last of the Mag Seven.

Microsoft's OpenAI showed off its generative video software for the first time, with founder Sam Altman taking prompt requests live on X.com