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Fed minutes released: Rate cuts likely, but path highly uncertain
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Wall Street Today | Seven Weeks Index Heaven

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Moomoo Recap US joined discussion · Dec 15, 2023 15:12
Wall Street Today | Seven Weeks Index Heaven
RECAP
The Dow Jones Industrial Average made it through a slow trading day Friday for a third straight record close as the major U.S. equity indexes headed for their seventh consecutive week in the green. The S&P 500 Index broke its longest winning stretch since November 2017 with just a 0.01% drop.
All three indexes have gained over 2% this week. The $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ rose 56 points Friday and 2.93% for the week to an all-time high of 37,305. The $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ fell just 0.01% Friday but finished up 2.49% for the week, within a hundred points of it's all-time high at 4,719. The $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ rose by 52 points Friday and 2.85% for the week to 14,813. The small-cap $Russell 2000 Index(.RUT.US)$ was up more than 5.55% for the week early Friday but settled below 2,000.
Stocks exploded after the Wednesday FOMC meeting announcement that rates were predictably unchanged, and that the market could expect three or more rate cuts in 2024. Loan-dependent sectors like housing, auto, banking, and solar were launched on Thursday.
Oil fell before the FOMC results but came back to above $70 a barrel at week's end. Treasury bonds and the U.S. Dollar tumbled throughout the week, the $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD)$ dropping below 4 in the waning hours of Friday trading.
Matt Weller, global head of research at Forex.com told MarketWatch that, although seven-week winning streaks are rare, they typically have arrived in the middle of bull markets.
"After a huge rally through the middle of the week, it's a foregone conclusion that the S&P 500 will finish higher for the seventh consecutive week, a relatively rare streak historically," Weller said.
MACRO
Fed's Williams Says the Fed Isn't 'Really Talking About Cutting Interest Rates Right Now'
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams on Friday said interest rates are "at or near the right place" to get inflation under control and keep the economy growing. Yet Williams said it is "premature" to discuss whether it is time to cut interest rates. Financial markets imply the Fed could cut rates as soon as March.
"We aren't really talking about cutting interest rates right now," Williams said in an interview on CNBC. Williams said the Fed has to remain on guard against a resurgence in inflation and ensure the price increase continues to slow.
Using the consumer price index, the inflation rate has slowed to 3.1% as of November from a peak of 9.1% in 2022.
Services Expanded and Manufactureres Contracted
Flash services and manufacturing PMIs from S&P affirmed that manufacturing activity remained weak, while services activity reached a five-month high. The S&P flash U.S. services PMI rose to a five-month high of 51.3 in November, from 50.8 in the prior month.
The service side of the U.S. economy grew faster at the end of the year while manufacturers remained mired in a slump, a pair of S&P business surveys show. The flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, fell to a four-month low of 48.2 from 59.4
SECTORS
Early Losses in Oil Fueld by Fed Official's Walking Back Talk of Rate Cuts
il futures pared their early Friday losses, setting prices up for a gain on the week. Attacks on ships traveling through the Red Sea, blamed on Yemen's Houthi rebels, raised the potential for disruptions to the transport of oil and other goods.
Oil prices had traded decidedly lower early Friday after a Federal Reserve official walked back dovish comments made earlier this week by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January was down 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices trading around 0.4% higher for the week, FactSet data show.
February Brent crude $Crude Oil Futures(SEP4)(CLmain.US)$, the global benchmark 0.7%, to $71 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, trading roughly 1.3% higher for the week. January gasoline added 1.4% to $2.149 a gallon, while January heating oil HOF24 climbed 2.2% to $2.6481 a gallon on Nymex.
Natural gas for January delivery gained 5.2% to $2.516 per million British thermal units, but still eying a weekly loss of 2.5%.
Wall Street Today | Seven Weeks Index Heaven
COMPANIES
DocuSign Stock Jumps 8% on WSJ Sale Rumors
E-signature company $DocuSign(DOCU.US)$ is working with advisers to explore a sale, in what could be one of the largest leveraged buyouts in recent memory.
Costco's 'Solid' Q1 EPS, Special Dividend Likely to Impact 2024 EPS, Morgan Stanley Says
$Costco(COST.US)$ reported "solid" earnings per share growth in fiscal Q1 despite below-average comparable sales, but its special dividend could potentially impact fiscal year 2024 EPS, Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients Friday.
SEC Denies Coinbase's Demand for New Crypto Rules Ahead of 2024 Showdown
The Securities and Exchange Commission denied a petition for rulemaking that $Coinbase(COIN.US)$ made last year, demanding the agency bring "regulatory clarity" to crypto markets with fit-for-purpose regulations. "There is nothing about the crypto securities markets that suggests that investors and issuers are less deserving of the protections of our securities laws," SEC Chair Gary Gensler said in a statement Friday.
Broadcom Stock Records Best Week Ever
The PHLX Semiconductor index was recently up 1%. Shares of Broadcom, up about 3%, were among the S&P 500's top gainers in morning trading. $Broadcom(AVGO.US)$ is up some 21% this week, poised for its best week ever, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Late last month, the company finally its takeover of VMware.
Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, CNBC, Reuters
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