〈Weekly Analysis #2〉Bitcoin's sudden rise of over 5%! Can it continue the sharp rise from last week?
※In this section, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis by performing a multi-faceted technical evaluation. Additionally, the evaluation will be done based on a scale of "5 (buy) - 1 (sell)."
Bitcoin ETF Flow
The sharp rise on 10/11 is likely due to institutional buying back? There are doubts remaining about whether the market as a whole has truly recovered.
Technical Analysis (Overall rating: 2.7/5)
Points
・Candlesticks with long upper wicks continue. It has been able to rise above the neckline of the double bottom pattern since the decline at the beginning of October. It has a shape that is close to the XABCD pattern "Shark". If the rise continues to point D, will it halt after reaching the high set at the end of September?
-Continuing to be tested for breaking through the downward trend materials,"①Rapid rise in US 10-year bond yields, "②Rollback concerns of yen carry trades". As for ①, at the moment it is not important due to the increase in Trump's support rate and the decrease in Harris' support rate. Concerning ③, the tension regarding the 'deterioration of the situation in the Middle East' is whether Iran will retaliate and resume combat due to the US economic sanctions on petroleum products by Iran. The uncertainty remains a concern. The first step is the most important task to rise to the 200-day moving average line.
-There may be sideways or downward potential in the short term, but a gradual upward trend is expected in the medium term. There also seems to be a conversion of buying volume in terms of volume.
-In the medium to long term perspective, the upward trend is still ongoing. As for the direction, the short-term downward trend is easing and a weak upward trend reversal suggestion is emerging.
-The market does not seem to be as bound by fear as it was last week. Will the unstable state settle down soon?
☆Market sentiment (Rating: 2.5/5)
* Analyzing the rough development using a typical chart pattern for market sentiment.
- Chart pattern (3/5)
Candlestick charts continue to show candles with long upper wicks. It has been able to rise above the neckline of the double bottom pattern from the decline in early October. It particularly resembles the 'Shark' pattern of the XABCD pattern.
If the upward trend continues to point D, could it hit the high point set at the end of September and take a break?
- Dow Theory (2/5)
The downside trend material, like the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in the yield of US 10-year bonds, resulted in the failure to break through the "① Harry Trade Concern" and being rejected at the resistance line, leading to a decline. Although attempts to rise continued, they were rejected at the resistance line of the 200-day moving average, leading to a failed short-term uptrend reversal.
→Continuously testing the breakthrough of downside trend materials such as the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in the yield of US 10-year bonds, as well as concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades. Regarding the first issue, it is currently unaffected by the increase in support for Trump and decrease in support for Harris. For the third issue, there is concern about whether the deteriorating situation in the Middle East could lead to retaliatory combat due to the US economic sanctions on Iranian petroleum products. The uncertain factors continue to be unsettling material. First and foremost, rising to the 200-day moving average line is the most crucial task.As for issue ③ concerning the "deterioration of the situation in the Middle East", there is concern whether retaliatory combat will resume due to the US economic sanctions on Iranian petroleum products. Uncertainties still remain as unsettling factors. Rising to the 200-day moving average line is the top priority task for now.
☆Trading Timing (Rating: 2.5/5)
* Analyzing selling or buying timing by combining moving averages and volume.
- Moving Average (3/5)
The candlestick chart temporarily dropped to the 75-day moving average line, but recovered up to the 5-day moving average line. A golden cross occurred at the 50/75-day moving average lines.
- Volume moving average (2/5)
A large amount of volume continues to follow in sell trades. A golden cross occurred at the short-term/medium-term moving average lines but quickly dropped and ended with a fakeout.
→ Short-term may be sideways or have room for decline, but in the medium-term, a gradual rise is expected. There seems to be a conversion of buy volume in terms of volume.
☆Trend (Rating: 3.25)
I will analyze the medium to long-term upward and downward trends.
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (3.5/5)
There is a turning point in the three roles. Although it is concerning that the negative cloud is thickening, there is still no sign of a reversal.
・DMI (3/5)
PDI/MDI/ADX are all trending in a sideways manner. In the recent period, PDI/ADX crossed and rose at the lower end, while PDI remained flat at the high end.
→ From a medium to long-term perspective, the uptrend is still ongoing.As for the directional bias, the short-term downtrend is easing, and a weak indication of an upward reversal is becoming visible.
☆ Overheating sentiment (rating: 2.6/5)
Analyzing the overheating feeling from levels of being overbought.
・BOLL (3/5).
It temporarily dropped to -3σ, but it has been able to recover to the baseline in the short term.
・RSI (2.5/5)
Even during the maximum decline this week (10/10), it stayed around 44. Currently, it has recovered to around 50, an appropriate level.
-MACD (2.5/5).
In a death cross since October. Slightly stagnant, and could a golden cross be approaching soon?
→The market does not seem to be as gripped by fear as it was last week.Is the unstable situation going to settle down soon?
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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