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Mr Trecherous :
SpyderCall : Congrats to the winners!
SpyderCall Mr Trecherous : Is the news legit? Like, has anybody done some legitimate fact checking on it?
mr_cashcow : My best guess is 2 rate cuts this year...but then again it is the FED so who knows? Remember never go full clown Sending my regards to all reward points winners
102362254 : How many Federal Reserve rate cuts do you expect this year and why?
I’m expecting two Fed rate cuts this year due to inflation concerns. The Fed aims to balance inflation control and growth promotion. Strong labor market signals gradual rate reductions, but geopolitics could change this.
Mr Trecherous SpyderCall : Who would you actually trust Spy??
HuatLady : Despite early signs of high inflation, some Fed officials still anticipate 3 interest rates cut in 2024. Jerome Powell emphasized that the recent inflation surge hasn't changed their economic outlook much, expecting inflation to cool gradually. Although economists are uncertain, the Feds projections supported these expected rates reductions.
Regardless of whether it's a 3 or 2 rate cuts, my investment strategy remains consistent: buying and investing in high quality stocks for the long term.
SpyderCall Mr Trecherous : I see your point.
HuatEver : With inflation on the rise, the Fed is hesitant to lower rates. Experts foresee a possible cut in 2024, maybe at the June 12 meeting, to address inflation. The Fed plans to wait for signs of inflation easing before making a move. Market reactions indicate a cautious stance. BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink predicts a maximum of 2 rate cuts this year. I, too, anticipate 2 rate cuts. We can keep track of the Fed’s decision as economic conditions evolve.
BelleWeather : Powell has acted consistently with his ongoing statements. These have been ignored at times, for example when he said three cuts last year, and traders anticipated six. I expect he will remain consistent, and follow the data. He has said before that the 3% is within the range for cuts in the future, pending further data points. I think, the current geopolitical conditions aside, that inflation will continue to lower as housing costs are a huge contributor to inflation. This is a lagging indicator, in that the rate hikes take time to reflect in housing numbers. The uptick in oil, including due to recent conflict, is concerning, but as far as cuts are concerned, energy isn’t considered by the Fed. Their mandate balances only employment and inflation, not including food and energy. I think that employment may in fact weaken, but inflation will take time to get to 2%, and a number greater than that would still be acceptable to the Fed because of lagging factors. I don’t prefer to predictions, and if I were in charge of such things, I’d not be inclined to lower rates any time soon. The need to raise them again is too likely and would be more problematic than ‘higher for longer.’ If I had to guess, I think that in 2024, zero to one cut is most likely, two is possible, and three is now unlikely.
For my investing and trading strategies, I will certainly keep close tabs on the Fed-speak. As one example, other than LEAPS, I’m holding off on buying shares of and contracts on equities that are very sensitive to rates, like unprofitable and debt laden small biopharma companies (and some other sectors.) When Powell signals cuts are coming soon, I will enter those positions and contracts. The higher rates have created opportunities now, in many sectors. One equity-type that I am building positions in are REITs. The higher rates forced restructuring of these and some are attractive now. (I like VICI, and various industrial, storage and data center REITs.)
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