In recent news: Shares of electric-vehicle stocks are under pressure on Thursday. Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Motors all experienced notable declines in a rollercoaster day, while several Chinese EV manufacturers also saw their stock prices take a hit. Tesla, saw its shares drop by 2.73%. Rivian Automotive suffered a steeper decline of 5.92%. Lucid Group advanced nearly 2%, after announcing a new SUV model and expected to land in late 2024. Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO inc were down 4.9%, 7.19%, and 8.44%, respectively.
ThirtyOne : Any meeting between the two at this point is beneficial in my opinion. The last thing we need is a war between world powers.
102362254 : I'm ready for anything, even Santa's gifts or Grinch's tricks. If the market goes down, I'll buy more stocks on sale. If there’s a year-end rally, I'll enjoy the ride. Right now, I'm making a list and checking it twice, looking for some nice deals before the new year.![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
mr_cashcow : Oh Yes it is that time of the year again!
Hohoho I choose to believe a green Santa Claus rally is coming to town!![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
So far Rudolph the
-Nosed Reindeer didn't disappoint![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
ZnWC : First the geopolitical reason. Biden-Xi meeting at San Francisco had eased US-China tension with new cooperation in military and climate change. But there's little progress in economic cooperation especially the tariff imposed in electric vehicles. Chinese EV stocks saw a sell-off during the visit. Hamas-Israeli war and Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue til end of year with no hope of any cease fire.
Second economic reason. Several countries are imposing tariff of import and restrictions of export on certain commodities (rare earth, rice, palm oil etc). OPEC+ tried several attempts restrict supply to increase oil price. The above may trigger a large scale trade war and may spiral the global economy into further slowdown or worse recession.
The above may look gloomy but there's hope. World leaders are looking at ways to co-operate politically and economically. The recent APEC summit is one example. Despite the odds, technological advancement continue. Last year, I highlighted 3 sectors which may change the future: Artificial Intelligence, Supercomputing and 6G communication. If there synergy in any of the 3 sectors, the catalyst may bring big rally. We are now looking at the rise of AGI - Artificial General Intelligence.
I am looking forward for a rally by end of the year or early next year. There is uncertainty but catalysts to the stock market may emerge. The question is do we have the holding power.
Meme_Short_Queen : AMC will test the 7 dollar low and rebound
angel beginner ThirtyOne : at least if war happens it gives me an excuse for being such a failure at life
HuatEver : It is such an intriguing question to anticipate whether the end of the year will bring a rally. As investors we do hope the answer is a”YES”. However, irregardless of the outcome, I do look forward to picking up some bargainable blue chips stocks during the market’s fray.
![undefined [undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36)
小trader : Firstly, with the weaker economic data and labour data, interest rate is likely to have peaked the Feds seems to be at the end of their hiking cycle. Even if analysts are expecting the earliest interest rate cuts in June 2024, I think the the markets will likely improve from here on.
Secondly, with the improved US-China relationships, a few other sectors may benefit and might prove to be a surprise in 2024.
Lastly, earnings expectations seems to have improved across multiple sectors. This could provide further tailwind heading towards the end of the year.
cola1010 : Interest rate hikes, improving US-China ties, and strong profit expectations across industries all point to a favourable backdrop that might contribute to a market rally by the end of the year. While there are no assurances in predicting market moves, these indicators point to a more optimistic perspective, which may correspond to the Santa Claus bringing a rally to town. However, market dynamics can be influenced by a variety of unforeseen factors, thus prudence and agility are essential in managing prospective market changes.
Patrick Ting : We are seeing
1) inflation rate continued to fall,
2) labour market continued to ease
and these make it almost certain that there will not be another rate hike in the coming months to go.
These provided catalyst for the market to rally for the past 3 weeks.
The market are even now forecasting a rate cut by mid of next year. Key to note that rate cut may not necessary be what the investor wanted, as it usually comes after as a response from Fed to economic downturns.
A few risk we will need to monitor closely for the lagged effect of the current Fed fund rate.
1) Will consumer spending drop drastically after this leading to a deflation?
2) With piling debts, depleting savings, resumption of student loans, and the normalisation of wage growth, how much more spending power does the consumer still has? How sustained can it be?
3) More and more corporate debt will be maturing next year and will need to be refinance at the current higher borrowing cost.
We are even seeing some evidence in the weakening consumer spending from the retail giant Walmart and Target stating the fact that consumer spending continued to contract as consumers are becoming more cautious and selective in their spending.
Nevertheless, we are still one month away to conclude a Christmas year-end rally. However, given the current direction, the sentiment is still skewed towards the positive side while we as investors should also stay wary of the risk that might be hiding.
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