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What are the key events for December in the US stock market to watch? Such as FRB policy interest rates, statements by FRB Chairman Powell, and the US November Consumer Price Index.

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Nov 29, 2024 20:15
What are the key events for December in the US stock market to watch? Such as FRB policy interest rates, statements by FRB Chairman Powell, and the US November ...
DealBook Summit (December 5th, Thursday JST).
Next week, there will be the ISM Manufacturing Business Index and employment statistics on the 6th. On the 5th, Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to participate in the DealBook Summit hosted by The New York Times. According to the market, it is expected that he will state, 'Continued gradual interest rate cuts are appropriate'.
US November employment statistics (December 6th, Friday JST).
US October employment statistics
- Unemployment rate in October: 4.1% (Estimate: 4.1%, September: 4.1%)
- Number of non-farm sector employees in October: +0.012 million people (Estimate: +0.101 million people, September: +0.223 million people←+0.254 million people)
- Average hourly wage in October: +4.0% year-on-year (Estimate: +4.0%, September: +3.9%←+4.0%)
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Market reaction: USA October employment statistics, employment growth at its lowest level since 2020, resulting in selling pressure on the dollar.
- US November Consumer Price Index (December 11th, Wednesday Japan Time)
US October Consumer Price Index
- October Consumer Price Index: +2.6% year-on-year (estimate: +2.6%, September: +2.4%)
- October Core Consumer Price Index: +3.3% year-on-year (estimate: +3.3%, September: +3.3%)
- October Consumer Price Index: +0.2% month-on-month (estimate: +0.2%, September: +0.2%)
- October Core Consumer Price Index: +0.3% month-on-month (estimate: +0.3%, September: +0.3%)
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Market reaction: In October, US CPI matched expectations, increasing speculation on additional rate cuts in December, causing the dollar to weaken.
● US November Producer Price Index (December 12th, Thursday Japan time)
US October Producer Price Index
- October Producer Price Index: +0.2% month-on-month (Forecast: +0.2%, September: +0.1%←0.0%)
- October Producer Price Index core index: +0.3% month-on-month (Forecast: +0.2%, September: +0.2%←+0.2%)
- October Producer Price Index: +2.4% year-on-year (Forecast: +2.3%, September: +1.9%←+1.8%)
- October Producer Price Index core index: +3.1% year-on-year (Forecast: +3.0%, September: +2.9%←+2.8%)
- New initial jobless claims for the previous week: +0.217 million (estimates: 0.22 million, previous: 0.221 million)
- Number of continuing unemployment insurance recipients: +1.873 million people (estimates: 1.869 million people, previous: 1.884 million people ← 1.892 million people)
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[Market Reaction] U.S. October PPI accelerating, new initial jobless claims decreasing, dollar buying prevailing
U.S. November retail sales (December 17th, Tuesday, Japan time)
U.S. October retail sales
- October retail sales: +0.4% month-on-month (estimates: +0.3%, September: +0.8% ← +0.4%)
- October retail sales (excluding automobiles): +0.1% month-on-month (estimates: +0.3%, September: +1.0% ← +0.5)
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Market reaction: USA October retail sales revenue / November NY Fed Manufacturing Business Index, the dollar is remaining firm.
● FOMC meeting (Thursday, December 19th, Japan time)
US inflation rate has been persistently high, and with expectations of a soft landing for the US economy, there is a possibility that the dollar buying and yen selling anticipated the Federal Reserve Board's (FRB) rate cut will strengthen again after being put on hold.
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There is a possibility that the policy interest rate will be kept unchanged at the FOMC meeting held in December.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (for the meeting on November 6-7th)
USA personal consumption expenditure price index in NovemberJapan time December 20, Friday
USA personal consumption expenditure price index in October
- October Core PCE price index: +2.8% year-on-year (estimates: +2.8%, September: +2.7%)
- October personal income: +0.6% from the previous month (estimates: +0.3%, September: +0.3%)
- October Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE): +0.4% from the previous month (estimates: +0.4%, September: +0.6% ← +0.5%)
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Market reaction: U.S. core PCE price index and income accelerate, dollar selling pressure recedes.
*December 24th is Christmas Evea half-day trading session (shortened hours) due to
- moomoo News Zoe
Source: moomoo, FISCO
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
What are the key events for December in the US stock market to watch? Such as FRB policy interest rates, statements by FRB Chairman Powell, and the US November ...
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