How was the result of the FRB US interest rate cut! What happened to the market afterwards?
Fundamental analysis.
SOXL, bitcoin (rating: 3.3/5): The rate cut exceeded expectations and caused confusion, but Powell's remarks shifted to risk-on mode. However, it is likely to be a temporary increase.
TMF (rating: 3.1/5): The rate cut exceeded expectations causing confusion, negative for bonds. Also, as money flows into risk assets and the yield of US 10-year bonds temporarily rises, it suppresses bond price movements. Due to the temporary increase in risk assets, it is believed that the yield of US 10-year bonds will gradually soften in the future.
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☆US economic indicators (evaluation: SOXL, TMF, bitcoin 3.5/5)
・September New York Fed manufacturing business conditions index: forecast -4 result11.5(Previous value -4.7 )
・August retail sales (month-on-month): forecast -0.2% result0.1%(Previous value 1.0%)
・September NAHB Housing Market Index: forecast 40 result41(Previous value 39)
・August industrial production(month-on-month): Expected 0.2%, Result0.8%(Previous value -0.6%)
・August residential construction volume (month-on-month): Expected 5.8%, Result9.6%(Previous value -6.8%)
・August construction permits issued (month-on-month) Expected 1.0%, Result4.9%Previous value -4.0%
・FOMC policy interest rate announcement: Expected 5.00-5.25%, Result 4.75-5.00% (Previous value 5.25-5.50%)
→ Inflation indicators are higher than expected,Especially the housing sector sees a significant increase.The policy interest rate will see a larger rate cut than expected.
☆Remarks from key figures (Evaluation: SOXL, Bitcoin 3/5, TMF 2.5/5)
17th
Finance Minister Suzuki
There are both positive and negative impacts, such as the influence of overseas income and fluctuations in import prices.
Currency rates are determined in the market reflecting the fundamentals.
Rapid movements in currency exchange rates are not desirable. It is important to closely monitor and take a cautious stance on currency exchanges.
19th
Statement of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
"The inflation rate is making further progress towards the Committee's 2% target, but remains somewhat high"
Considering the progress of inflation and the balance of risks, the committee has decided to lower the target range for FF interest rates by 0.50% to 4.75-5.00%.
The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.
"The committee strongly commits to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to a 2% target" "Mr. Bowman, who voted against it, supports a 0.25% rate cut"
Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve (FRB)
"The overall U.S. economy is strong" "The labor market is cooling from previous overheating" "The risk of inflation overshooting is decreasing, while the risk of employment undershooting is increasing"
"There is no forecast suggesting the Fed is in a hurry" "The 0.50% rate cut should not be seen as a new pace"
20th
Bank of Japan statement
"Companies' wage and price-setting behaviors are becoming more proactive, making exchange rate fluctuations more likely to impact prices compared to the past"
Risk factors such as overseas economic prices, resource prices, and corporate wage price settings.
The core inflation rate of consumer prices is expected to move in a generally consistent level with the price target in the latter half of the outlook report period.
Exports, production, movements within a stagnant range, and personal consumption are in a gradual increasing trend despite the impact of rising prices.
Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan
Real interest rates are at extremely low levels. If the economic and price outlook is realized, the policy interest rates will be raised and the degree of monetary easing will be adjusted.
Taking into account the impact of two rate hikes this year, we are gradually deepening our recognition towards the neutral interest rates stage. Regarding the rate hike in July, we are aware of the criticism that our thoughts were not communicated well to the market.
21st
Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)
"The economy is in a good phase and we want to maintain this state" "To keep the economy in good shape, I felt that a 0.50% rate cut would be appropriate" "The extent of future rate cuts will depend on the data released"
Bowman, a board member of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)
"I believe that inflation and cooling in the labor market will progress after the middle of 2023"
"To avoid premature victory declarations, I think it is desirable to have a relatively small initial rate cut"
"I see a risk in interpreting the expansion of the committee's policy measures as a premature victory declaration on price stability's mission"
"Advocating a cautious pace towards a neutral policy to ensure further advancement of inflation"
☆ Others (Evaluation: SOXL: 3.5/5, TMF: 3/5, Bitcoin 3.5/5)
- SOXL: On the 17th, U.S. financial giant BlackRock and U.S. IT giant Microsoft announced the establishment of a fund exceeding $30 billion to build data centers and energy infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI). The fund's general partner is MGX, an investment company from Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE).ＡＩ向け半導体を製造するエヌビディアが専門知識を提供する。
→エヌビディアの間接的技術援助が進む。まだAI実需は進むか？
・TMF：緩和措置に動いた米金融当局が経済見通しを支える中、市場を動かすもう一つの変数であるバリュエーションが、市場の祝賀ムードがどこまで続くかを判断する上でより大きな課題に浮上している。米債券市場のボラティリティーは低下した。ナスダック100指数の２週間の上昇率は昨年11月以来最高だった。Ｓ＆Ｐ500種株価指数利回りと米10年国債利回りについてインフレを調整したモデルによると、足元の価格は過去14回全ての米金融緩和サイクル開始時よりも高い水準にある。
→祝賀ムードが切り替わったとき、リスク→安全資産に流入するか？
- Bitcoin: BlackRock has a perspective on Bitcoin (BTC). Publish the report and emphasize the 'unique diversified investment' that is detached from traditional financial risks and geopolitical risks for investors.、For investors, it is emphasized as a "unique diversified investment" separated from traditional financial risks and geopolitical risks. emphasized.
Can long-term investment opportunities expand?
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