What can the remaining credit buybacks in Japanese stocks teach us?
First, take a look at the following graph.
This is the next week after 2022“Two-market total credit balance and credit ratio”This is a graph of
First time in 17 years during the week of 4/19/24Credit purchase balance 4.7 trillion yenIt has broken through. And the latest one that came out yesterday 18thCredit balance of 4 trillion788.2 billion yen even with data for the “24/7/12 week”It is.
This remains quite a lotCredit balance is future sales demandTherefore, the current supply and demand for Japanese stocks is bad.
Institutional investors' arbitrage balance is 2.3 trillion yenThis is also a pretty high level. So once the gears turn in reverse like this one, the items for sale come out all at once.
Institutional investors' arbitrage balance is 2.3 trillion yenThis is also a pretty high level. So once the gears turn in reverse like this one, the items for sale come out all at once.
Up to this point, it's a normal story, but let's take a closer look at what can be read from this graph.
First, take a look at the period in which the blue graph (credit backlog) is on the rise.
5.5 months from 2022/7/22 week to 23/1/6 week, and 5 months from 2023/5/19 to 23/10/27.
And 5 months from the week of 1/12/2024 to the week of 6/21/24.
5.5 months from 2022/7/22 week to 23/1/6 week, and 5 months from 2023/5/19 to 23/10/27.
And 5 months from the week of 1/12/2024 to the week of 6/21/24.
In all of them, the rise in credit buybacks came to an end in roughly 5 to 5.5 months, right?
Well, since margin trading is basically repaid for half a year or 6 months, it somehow fits perfectly if the increase span is around 6 months.
andBasically, in the phase where credit backlogs accumulate, are stock prices rising or disputes in the high price rangeThat's the situation.
andBasically, in the phase where credit backlogs accumulate, are stock prices rising or disputes in the high price rangeThat's the situation.
In other words, now, stock prices have plummeted as of 24/7/19, but this is probably because institutional investors are eliminating arbitrage backlogs all at once, and individuals are also making profit and loss cuts on the part they are buying on credit,There has been a significant decrease in credit backlogsI think so.
If so,The upward phase of credit buybacks ended in 6/22 weekYes, from here on, I think the remaining credit buybacks will decrease as the credit ratio declines.
And it's not like this trend will change in a few days...3 weeks at the earliest, 2 months at the latestIt continues.
It's justThe story that the downward trend in credit backlogs continuesAnd that doesn't mean that stock prices will continue to fall. However, it means that the market where people buy with trust is over,Will the strong rise like the first half of 24 come to an endI can read that it's probably.
In other words, from here on, it's not a period where you can build up purchases very aggressively, even though you push and eat snacks where things have declined.
Furthermore, one more major trend is also attracting attention.
The balance level of credit buybacks has been drastically reduced since the week of 23/5/19Do you understand that?
What was around 3.5 trillion yen until then quickly surpassed the 4 trillion yen level.
What was around 3.5 trillion yen until then quickly surpassed the 4 trillion yen level.
Buffett visited Japan on 23/4/12, and the Buffett Rally began from thereThe day the Nikkei average broke through 0.03 million yen is 2023/5/17What is it!
The day when the level of unpaid credit was cut down and started toward a historic level was the day the Nikkei average exceeded 30,000 yenIt is.
Now that there is 4.7 trillion yen left over credit, supply and demand are certainly bad.
Since this resolution will progress for at least 1 month or so from here, the upper price will be heavy.
Since this resolution will progress for at least 1 month or so from here, the upper price will be heavy.
But it feels like 2-3 years agoIf you were asked if unpaid credit can be resolved up to the 3.5 trillion yen level by dividing 4 trillion yen, noI think so.
At the same time, it can be said that the possibility of not dividing the Nikkei Average by 0.03 million yen, or more specifically, dividing by 33,000 yen has decreased considerably.
At the same time, it can be said that the possibility of not dividing the Nikkei Average by 0.03 million yen, or more specifically, dividing by 33,000 yen has decreased considerably.
Since there are a lot of credit left over, the upper price is heavy.. It's correct now, but it's down this week and it will come out next weekIf the balance of credit purchases is divided by 4.5 trillion yen, it is necessary to think that “it has returned to a somewhat balanced position”I think there is.
So depending on the brand, I think it's okay to still buy it if it's popular.
Finally, a bonus.
The graph I made this time was completed in 5 minutes by having ChatGPT read the data from the JPX disclosure, instructing them to slightly mismatch the scales.
Furthermore, it also examines facts that can be read from this graph and other data. It's a good conversation partner for me (laughs)
I feel that future individual investors will be able to arrive at meaningful information by having conversations with AI on their own rather than listening to dubious economists.
The graph I made this time was completed in 5 minutes by having ChatGPT read the data from the JPX disclosure, instructing them to slightly mismatch the scales.
Furthermore, it also examines facts that can be read from this graph and other data. It's a good conversation partner for me (laughs)
I feel that future individual investors will be able to arrive at meaningful information by having conversations with AI on their own rather than listening to dubious economists.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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