What jobs are worth doing in the new AI world?
I think there are 4 segments.
1. Chip Makers: Lithography machine, fab, chip designer. ASML manufactures machines to manufacture chips, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ uses machines to manufacture chips, and Nvidia designs chips that machines manufacture. There are many other companies in this category, but these 3 companies seem to have very strong defensive barriers.
2. Frontier Model Producer: $Artificial Intelligence (LIST2136.US)$ , Anthropic, Google, and probably Facebook. Unless you're manufacturing a leading model, you're selling commoditized computing. They buy chips.
3. Electricity producers: This has been a big topic of conversation over the past 3 months, but model training runs and inference consumes huge amounts of power, and this amount is expected to grow exponentially. Demand for electricity far exceeds supply, and owners of power generation facilities will benefit until more infrastructure is built.
4.AI product manufacturer: These are companies that package model inference in a way that ordinary consumers can use models efficiently. In my eyes, the legitimate players in this field are $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ 、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ There are only 3 companies. All three have valid claims to win in this area, but Apple seems to be the strongest.
Of these four segments, I think most of the value of the AI boom will accumulate in the last segment. This appears to be one of the few areas where true monopoly advantage can be sustained.
To be successful, I think “product developers” need several elements: access to cutting-edge models, distribution, and user trust.
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