“What's going to happen!? “NVIDIA Stock Prices - Analysis of Sudden Stock Price Declines”

Now, in order to infer price movements after a big drop from a high price like this one,“Fibonacci Retracement”There is a method called. This is an important ratio calculated based on a theory called the “Fibonacci series” studied by a mathematician called Fibonacci. According to this theory, 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 76.4% are important as ratios between recent high and low prices in stock and exchange rates. It is said that there is a high possibility that a reversal in stock prices and exchange rates will occur in the price range obtained by adding 50% to these ratios.

　Stocks that generally continue to rise at a remarkable speed may gain prominence even if there is no such reason. Now let's take a look at NVIDIA's stock price.

The high price on 6/20 is 0% as the standard, and the low price is set on 4/19 with a yellow arrow attached, so that is 100%.

As shown in chart 1 below, the stock price began to rise on 6/25, slightly above the 38.2% price.

Well, NVIDIA's stock price hit the bottom in January of this year as well. So next, I set the low price on January 4 to 100%, and what I examined with Fibonacci retracement in the same way is Chart 2 below.

Taking the low of January 4 as a standard, it was found that stock prices began to rise at exactly 23.6%.

The ratio of switching back and forth between stock prices will change depending on how the criteria for low prices are determined, but like this time

It is said that if it reverses and rises at a ratio smaller than 50%, that is, around 23.6% or 38.2%, there is a high possibility that the upward momentum will continue.

　Insiders involved in management, such as executives and directors of the US semiconductor manufacturer NVIDIA, sold over 700 million dollars (about 110 billion yen) of company stock this year. As you know, the company carried out a stock split on 6/10 to split 1 share into 10 shares. Excluding this impact, executives and directors have sold approximately 770,000 NVIDIA shares so far this year. According to data compiled by Washington Service,Since January to June 2023 (first half), when approximately 848,000 shares were sold, the largest amount of money aggregated every six months, as shown in the graph belowIt will be.　

Since the stock price of NVIDIA shares rose rapidly in '24, the amount of shares sold by insiders this year has greatly exceeded the previous period.

Source: Created by The Washington Service, provided by Bloomberg, with some additions

　It is said that more than one-third of the company shares sold by NVIDIA executives and directors this year were sold after NVIDIA's February-April (1st quarter) financial results announcement made on 5/22.

　Who is the largest seller of company stock in NVIDIA's management teamMark Stevens and Tench Cox are both directorsIt was.CEO Jenson Huang sold approximately $31 million of company shares based on a pre-agreed trading plan on the 17thI reported that it was done. The person in charge of NVIDIA says they will refrain from commenting.

Of course,The trading of company shares by managers of listed companies is announced as trading by insiders in order to maintain fair market prices.This trading was reported on the 19th, and there is no denying the possibility that this report gave some impetus to the current decline in NVIDIA shares.