What to Expect in the Week Ahead (JPM, WFC, PEP Earnings; A Key Inflation Gauge)

September inflation data and the start of earnings season are the highlights for investors this week. The stock market will be open on Monday, but U.S. bond markets will be closed.

On Thursday, all eyes will be on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for September. On average, economists are predicting increases of 0.3% in both the headline CPI and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy components. That would bring the year-over-year inflation rate to 3.6% and 4.1%, respectively, both lower than in August.

The BLS will also report the producer price index on Wednesday. The headline PPI is expected to be up 1.6% year over year and the core PPI is seen rising 2.3%. Federal Reserve watchers will closely parse the minutes from the central bank's mid-September policy meeting after their release on Wednesday.

Other economic data out this week will include a pair of sentiment indicators. On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business will release its Small Business Optimism Index for September, then on Friday, the University of Michigan will publish its Consumer Sentiment index for October.

Bond markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange have regular trading hours.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for September. Expectations are for a 90.9 reading.

The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its mid-September monetary-policy meeting.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for September. The consensus estimate is for the PPI to increase 1.6% year over year, unchanged from August. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 2.3%, one-tenth of a percentage point more than previously.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for September. Economists forecast that the CPI will increase 3.6% from a year earlier, while the core CPI is seen rising 4.1%. This compares with gains of 3.7% and 4.3%, respectively, in August. The annual change in the core CPI is at its lowest level since September 2021, and 2.3 percentage points less than its postpandemic peak from September 2022.

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Survey for October. The consensus call is for a 67.2 reading, about one point less than in September.