What to Expect in the Week Ahead (ORCL, FARM, ADBE Earnings; Inflation Data)

Apple is hosting a product event on Tuesday, at which it is expected to announce its iPhone 15 and other hardware.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the consumer price index for August on Wednesday morning. Economist consensus calls for a 3.6% year-over-year increase in the headline index and a 4.3% rise in the core CPI, which excludes food and energy components. On Thursday, the BLS will release the producer price index for August.

The European Central Bank will announce a monetary-policy decision on Thursday. Futures pricing is in favor of no change in interest rates.

Other economic data out this week will include the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for August on Tuesday, the Census Bureau's retail sales data for August on Thursday, and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index for September on Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for August. Economists forecast a 3.6% year-over-year increase, four-tenths of a percentage point more than in July. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 4.3% following a 4.7% gain previously. The CPI is nearly six percentage points lower than its peak of 9.1% reached in June of 2022.

The current contract between the United Auto Workers and the Big Three automakers expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern. The UAW has authorized a strike if no contract is agreed upon by the deadline. The current contract covers nearly 150,000 workers.

The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a one in three chance that the central bank will raise its key short-term interest by a quarter of a percentage point to 4%. The ECB has raised its target rate from negative 0.5% to 3.75% in a little more than a year.

The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for August. Consensus estimate is for 0.1% increase month over month. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen rising 0.4%. This compares with gains of 0.7% and 1%, respectively, in July.

The BLS releases the producer price index for August. The PPI and the core PPI rose 0.8% and 2.4%, respectively, in July.

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for September. Economists forecast a 69.5 reading, roughly even with the August data. In that month, consumers' expectations for the year-ahead inflation was 3.5%.