What will happen to AI semiconductor stocks in the future? Will the “NVIDIA strongest,” which faces headwinds from semiconductor regulations, collapse
On the 17th, the American Joe Biden administration announced a policy to restrict exports to China for cutting-edge semiconductors manufactured by US semiconductor giant NVIDIA, etc. How it will impact NVIDIA and other important parts of the AI ecosystem.
Analysts' analysis of the impact and long-term effects brought about by the new policy is as follows.
・The variety of semiconductor manufacturing equipment subject to export control has expanded
・Geographically, regional restrictions have been extended to a total of 22 countries
Detour risks are addressed by adjusting the parameters of advanced semiconductors to determine whether an export license application is necessary, and taking additional measures such as including exports to countries other than China as control targets. This means that semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies in more countries will be restricted, and the world's leading semiconductor manufacturing equipment companiesUnited States、Netherlands、Japanese companiesIt is occupied by
・Many major companies will be affected
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$Is the sales of semiconductors for data centers25%It is obtained from China. Therefore, under the current regulations $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$Ya $Intel(INTC.US$Although etc. will also be affected, analysts believe that NVIDIA will be the most affected.
Not just chip design companies $Applied Materials(AMAT.US$、 $KLA Corp(KLAC.US$、 $Lam Research(LRCX.US$It has also received a notification letter from the US government on a new export policy, and it is expected that it will be affected.
・Will cloud service companies also be affected
Cloud service regulations are still in the solicitation stage. LAAS (infrastructure as a service) companies may be restricted from acquiring, $Microsoft(MSFT.US$with $Amazon(AMZN.US$may be affected.
To NVIDIAShort-term effects are limitedIt looks like something, but many analysts and professional investors are preparing for the possibility of a major impact on future results and earnings. In one bearish scenario, Bank of America's Vivek Arya said NVIDIA's sales for the 2025 fiscal year5% to 10% reductionThen, EPS8% to 10% reductionThen it's predicted. Strong demand will drive NVIDIA until the first half of 2024,There will be an impact in the second half of next yearJPMorgan Chase is watching.
The ratio of NVIDIA's data center business to China, which is the world's second-largest economy, has been around 20 to 25% in the past few quarters. This regulation is for data center revenueEquivalent to about one-thirdGoldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari pointed out.
Certainly, there is a possibility that some popular AI chip makers will be hit by the current US government policy, but not all subsectors will be hit. Charles Shi of NeedhamUS semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturerwithElectronic design automation related stocksWhat is the impact of on future earnings”smallestI anticipate that it will be”. Also, Mr. Sur of JPMorgan was regulated in 2022,There is a possibility that negative effects have already been factored into stocksIt was said.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon gave Nvidia's latest ratings“buy”I set it to.
China's TAM (total market size) is uncertain, but he pointed out that NVIDIA's long-term TAM is extremely large even excluding China. We see a possibility that Nvidia's data center market will grow significantly at an early stage. While short-term turmoil is possible, we are confident in Nvidia's long-term outlook, driven by continued strong demand and expanded future market opportunities.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh gave Nvidia's latest ratings“buy”I re-stated and the target stock price590I changed it to dollars.
Overall AI demand remains “very strong,” so we believe the short-term impact of regulation will be offset. NVDA anticipates that the decline in sales of major products such as the A800/H800 will be offset by strong global demand for the A100/H100 and huge AI order backlog next year. Nonetheless, since China accounts for about 20% of AI market demand (his estimate), it is expected that it will be a bigger issue in the long run.
The expansion of semiconductor regulations is rivals' $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US$MI250/MI300 of $Intel(INTC.US$It is expected to hit Gaudi2 technology. While we anticipate that the impact of AMD and Intel on a dollar basis will be much smaller than NVIDIA, it is anticipated that it will be a longer-term issue for these companies due to the impact on China's roadmap.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh also has Nvidia's target stock price of 750 dollars“buy”The rating was maintained.
Considering that the expansion of regulations can be replaced by demand from countries around the world, it is expected that the impact on Nvidia will be limited for the time being. Nonetheless, since it is difficult to replace demand in China, which has historically accounted for 20 to 25% of NVDA's data center revenue, assuming that there is a 20% impact on the forecast of data center sales of 101 billion dollars in 2025, it is expected that the impact of sales of 20 billion dollars and the impact of 5 dollars on the EPS forecast of 25.62 dollars will occur.
BMOCapital analyst Ambrish Srivastava also sets Nvidia's target stock price of 600 dollars“buy”The rating has been restated.
Assuming that China's contribution to NVDA's data center division will be zero in the worst case scenario, it is estimated that it will have a 20% impact on long-term EPS forecasts. In a scenario where “the ban continues permanently and over a long period of time, and NVIDIA cannot take workarounds such as the previous ban,” the target stock price drops from 600 dollars to about 480 dollars.
Citigroup analyst Atif Malik said Nvidia's target stock priceReduced from $630 to $575。
The earnings forecast for 2026 was lowered due to a decline in sales from data centers in China.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore maintains NVIDIA at an overweight and targets stock pricesReduced from $630 to $600。
Source: CNBC, Department of Commerce
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
-MOOMOO NEWS SHERRY, CALVIN
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物知りのエリス_2600 : Speaking of which, Halloween is close
那使子 : NVDA, INTC, AMD...
It makes me want to put it on everyone's motherboard~
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