What will happen to Mr. Biden's withdrawal announcement Trump trade?

US President Joe BidenIt is clear that they will “withdraw” from the November presidential electionI made it. In a letter posted on social media, he stated that after a crushing defeat at the debate session, he was unable to calm resistance within the Democratic Party against his candidacy, and that his run for the presidential election would be terminated. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris as a successor candidate. Secretary General Mogi Toshimitsu of the Liberal Democratic Party said on the 20th, “We still can't say definite results,The current atmosphere in the US is getting closer from “almost tiger” to “definitely tiger”” he said.

There is a possibility that Biden's withdrawal, which is less than 4 months until the November election, will further worsen the turbulence on Wall Street in the short term. It is said that there is a possibility that the “Trump Trade” (good material for energy companies, banks, and Bitcoin, bad material for electric cars and renewable energy), which gained momentum after Biden's presidential election debate, will stall.

Investors concerned about the political impact seem to be paying attention to cryptocurrencies and fossil fuel-related companies, but in other fields, interest is being drawn to heavily regulated sectors such as finance and healthcare.

What will happen to Mr. Biden's withdrawal announcement Trump trade?
After Mr. Biden announced his withdrawal, the question facing investors is whether the “Trump trade” should be maintained since Biden is withdrawing from the election campaign. Roundhill Financial's Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dave Mazza predicts that if the successor candidate Kamala Harris can inflict a substantial blow to Mr. Trump, volatility should continue. However, if Mr. Trump continues to maintain an advantage in opinion polls and investors confirm Mr. Trump's victory, it is said that “Trump trade” will prevail and volatility will decline.

Grace Fan, who is in charge of global policy research at GlobalData.ts Lombard, wrote in an earlier report that the Democratic Party's successor candidate meant “the 'Trump Trade' will stall as the market readjusts the possibility of victory.” “But if Harris were to eventually become a candidate, those bets would beIt's unlikely to move a lotIt's called”.

Matt Maley Miller's strategist Matt Maley said“Trump trades” like Bitcoin and energy are turning backWe believe that there is a possibility that some of the trades that have been hit, such as solar power stocks and electric cars, will recover. It was pointed out that volatility would rise rapidly from now until September.

Uncertainty surrounding the presidential election increased, and the price of gold rose due to demand for safe assets. In the transaction on the 22nd Asian time,The spot price of gold temporarily exceeded $2,410I did it. The decline in the dollar exchange rate was also a supporting factor. Prices for silver bullion, platinum, and palladium have also risen.

Bitcoin surpassed $68,000 at one pointI did it. What should be noted is that one reason for Bitcoin's strength lies in the market's optimistic expectations for the possibility of Mr. Trump's victory, which will create a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto assets.

According to Bloomberg, there is a strong view among traders and strategists that if Mr. Trump returns, transactions benefiting from deregulation and protectionist policies, and inflationary pressure associated with it will become active. Specifically, the appreciation of the dollar, the rise in US bond yields,Banking/Healthcare/Energy-related StocksIt's an increase, etc.

Also, recently Mr. Trump has dealt a blowsemiconductor stocksHowever, as uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election intensifies, there is a possibility that it will continue to attract attention in the short term.