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What will happen to Trump trading with Biden's withdrawal announcement?

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jul 22, 2024 16:17
U.S. President Joe BidenHe made it clear that he will "withdraw" from the presidential election since the November election.He stated in a letter posted on social media that he could not calm the resistance within the Democratic Party to his candidacy after a disastrous performance in the debate, and announced that he would withdraw from the presidential election. He supported Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, said on the 20th, "We still cannot say for sure, but the current atmosphere in the United States is moving from a "nearly bearish" to a "confirmed bearish" trend.With less than 4 months until the November election, Biden's withdrawal could potentially worsen the turmoil on Wall Street in the short term. The 'Trump Trade' that gained momentum after Biden's presidential debate (positive for energy companies, banks, and bitcoin but negative for electric vehicles and renewable energy) may lose steam. uncomfortably close.
High-tech companies are preparing for earnings reports. With Biden's withdrawal announcement, what will be the market's direction?
The current atmosphere in the United States is moving from a "nearly bearish" to a "confirmed bearish" trend.
今週、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Ya $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Earnings reports for large tech stocks are approaching. Bullish investors are hoping that strong content will halt the decline of tech stocks.
Rotation between tech stocks and small-cap stocks continued last week, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$with a 2% decline, investors are increasingly viewing that tech stocks are losing their advantage and small-cap stocks are benefiting, $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$rising for the second consecutive week.
Investors concerned about political influences are likely to focus on cryptocurrencies and fossil fuel-related companies, while in other sectors, there is growing interest in heavily regulated sectors such as finance and healthcare.
What will happen to Trump trading with Biden's withdrawal announcement?
After Biden announced his withdrawal, the issue investors are facing is whether to continue the 'Trump Trade' as Biden withdraws from the election. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial, expects volatility to continue if successor candidate Kamala Harris can effectively impact Trump. However, if Trump continues to maintain a lead in opinion polls and investors perceive Trump's victory as certain, the 'Trump Trade' will prevail and volatility will decrease.
Grace Fan, Global Policy Research at GlobalData.TS Lombard, previously wrote in a report that successors of the Democratic Party would mean the 'Trump Trade' would falter as the market re-evaluates the potential for victory. "If Harris eventually becomes the candidate, these bets wouldThere is a low likelihood of significant movement."."
Matt Maley Miller strategist, Mr. Matt Maley,believes that "Trump trades" like Bitcoin and energy may reverse, and some trades that were affected, such as photovoltaic technology stocks and electric vehicles, may recover. He pointed out that volatility will surge between now and September.President election uncertainty has increased, causing an increase in gold demand as a safe asset. During trading on the 22nd in Asia, the spot price of gold temporarily exceeded $2,410. The decline in the dollar also provided support. The prices of silver, platinum, and palladium also rose.
In trading on the 22nd during Asian hours,the spot price of gold temporarily surpassed $2,410.This, along with the decline in the dollar, supported the price increase of silver, platinum, and palladium.
Bitcoin temporarily surpassed $68,000.One notable factor for Bitcoin's strength lies in the market's optimistic expectations regarding the possibility of Mr. Trump's victory creating a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
In a post on June 12th, Mr. Trump stated that he wants to "Make all remaining Bitcoin in the USA," believing this would help the USA become "energy dominant." This post followed a meeting with executives from the mining industry. Additionally,It has been reported that if Mr. Trump wins the presidential election in November, he has promised to support the Bitcoin mining industry. $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Bitcoin mining stocks, among others, may receive attention.
What will happen to Trump trading with Biden's withdrawal announcement?
According to Bloomberg, traders and strategists believe that if Mr. Trump makes a comeback, there will be a strong view among them on the benefits of trading that will benefit from deregulation, protectionist trade policies, and resulting inflationary pressures. Specifically, a stronger dollar, rising US bond yields, as well as increases in bank, health care, and energy-related stocks.such as the rise.
Also, the uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, which have recently been affecting Mr. Trump, may continue to be of interest in the short term.Semiconductor stocksAlso, amidst increasing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, there may continue to be attention in the short term.

Source: Dow Jones, Bloomberg, Cointelegraph, moomoo
This article uses automatic translation in part.
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What will happen to Trump trading with Biden's withdrawal announcement?
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