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Tech outperforms after jumbo Fed rate cut: Are bullish signals coming?
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What will the seven major technology giants in the US stock market be like in 2025?

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加密大師兄 joined discussion · Dec 11, 2024 10:56
It is estimated that the total profits of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla, the seven major technology giants in 2025, will only increase by 18%, much lower than the 34% in 2024. Excluding NVIDIA, the largest beneficiary of the AI frenzy, the total profits of the other six companies in 2025 will only increase by 3%. As a result, investors have begun to look for new investment targets, such as energy and biotechnology stocks. An 18% profit growth rate may be considered good performance for almost all industries, except for these large technology companies. Meanwhile, the profit growth rate of the S&P 500 Index is expected to reach 13%, higher than this year's 10%. In other words, these technology giants will no longer be the growth benchmarks of American companies. Julian McManus, Portfolio Manager at investment firm Janus Henderson, said, 'The seven giants in the US stock market may not be the growth engine of the market as they were in the past year.' In response to this, investors have taken action. Data from EPFR Global shows that in the week ending December 4, the IT sector experienced the largest outflow of funds in six weeks, amounting to $1.4 billion, while small-cap stocks attracted an inflow of $4.6 billion.
Let's look at the potential development of the seven major technology giants in the US stock market in 2025 from a fundamental perspective:
From a policy perspective, there is a higher probability of Trump fulfilling his campaign promises of implementing interest rate cuts after taking office. As a result, the investment market will see more liquidity than in 2024. Of course, due to the significant size of the current seven tech giants in the US and the possibility of the crypto market absorbing a large amount of inflow liquidity, solely from a policy perspective, the seven tech giants will not experience the rocket-like incremental growth and surge seen in 2024.
1. Alphabet: Alphabet's growth potential is driven by advertising revenue and cloud computing business. However, faced with market competition and economic slowdown challenges, its profit growth may be constrained.
2. Amazon: Amazon's growth mainly relies on e-commerce and cloud services (AWS). Although its market share is stable, with increased economic uncertainty, consumer spending may decrease, impacting its profit growth.
3. Apple: Apple's business model is primarily based on high-profit hardware and services, and in the coming years, it may continue to benefit from the launch of new products and the growth of service business. However, market saturation and intensified competition may affect its growth rate.
4. Meta: Meta (parent company of Facebook) faces challenges in its transformation process, especially in terms of advertising revenue and user growth. While its investments in virtual reality and the metaverse may bring long-term returns, short-term profit growth may face pressure.
5. Microsoft: Microsoft's cloud computing business (Azure) continues to grow, and its strong position in the enterprise market gives it a certain resilience even in an economic slowdown. It is expected that its profit growth will be relatively stable.
6. NVIDIA: NVIDIA is the only company among these seven tech giants expected to experience significant growth, primarily benefiting from the rapid development of artificial intelligence. It is projected that its revenue in 2025 will reach $129 billion, with a profit of $71 billion, representing an increase of 49% and 52% respectively.
7. Tesla: Tesla's growth potential comes from the expansion of the electric vehicle market and the development of new energy technologies. However, with increasing competition and changes in market demand, its future profit growth may face challenges.
In addition to the seven major technology giants mentioned above, stocks like Netflix and SpaceX are worth paying attention to.
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