What you need to know today

Uncertainty over policy path
U.S. Federal Reserve officials are largely in favor of interest rate cuts in 2024, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December. However, there was "unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" over when — or even if — cuts will actually happen this year. Still, markets are expecting six quarter-point cuts.
Blow to markets
U.S. markets fell Wednesday, spooked by minutes of the Fed meeting in December, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly topped the 4% mark. The pan-European Stoxx 600 ended the day 0.86% lower. Shares of Maersk
rose 3.83% on news that freight rates will increase over route diversions, but the gain wasn't enough to lift the broader index.
Soft landing on track
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin expressed confidence the U.S. economy was on track for a soft landing — that is, a scenario where inflation subsides to 2% or below without causing the economy to contract. However, Barkin sees four risks to the soft landing: growth could reverse; unexpected shocks could occur; inflation might not dip below 2%; high demand could keep prices up.
Fears of war spreading
Al-Arouri, the deputy political head of Hamas and six other members of the Palestinian militant group were killed Tuesday. His home in Lebanon's capital of Beirut was reportedly targeted by a drone strike. Lebanon has claimed Israel is responsible for the blast but Israel has not claimed responsibility for it. The incident has sparked fears the war in Gaza could spread beyond the Palestinian enclave. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$