NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 138.850 TSLA
Tesla
-- 355.840 BABA
Alibaba
-- 124.730 INTC
Intel
-- 23.600 PLTR
Palantir
-- 119.160 
Where will the bottom of TLT be?
TLT is still in a continuous plunge 📉
In the short term, there may be an accelerated sprint to the bottom, followed by a high probability of a rebound. But the rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.
Currently, I plan to enter the market in batches, generally increasing my position by 10% for every 10% drop. I plan to buy at around 85, 80, 75, and 70.
Will TLT really drop to 70? Nothing is impossible. Bill Ackman's bearish article on bonds, I don't know if everyone has read it, but currently, his direction has been correct. I think the long-term interest rate he deduced at 5.5% should be the bottom line for TLT, corresponding to a price around 70.
Will it actually go that low? No one knows. But even if the peak of long-term bonds reaches 5.5%, it is unlikely to be sustained, and there will be rate cuts later, leading to a rebound in TLT. Although the dividends may not be great during this period, they still exist. However, in trading, one must be able to endure the worst outcomes. When darkness falls before dawn, you can't see the dawn.
I have opposed buying multiple times $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ , still opposed at the moment. If TLT drops to 70, then TMF will have to be halved again, dropping to around two dollars. Plus, there are no dividends. That would be really tough.
However, if the 10-year treasury bonds reach 5.5%, what should we do with the stock market? With a risk-free return of 5.5%, the corresponding PE ratio is 18 times. In other words, the upper limit of the stock market becomes an 18 times PE ratio, and the lower limit is approximately a 15 times PE ratio. Assuming the S&P 500's EPS is 220, a PE ratio of 15-17 is equivalent to a range of 3300-3700 points. Well, once it falls below 3500, it will truly break the monthly level M-top.![]()
![]()
![]()
I hope such a terrifying thing won't happen. The long-term interest rate must not reach 5.5%.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
1452
Followers
27
Following
10K
Visitors
Follow
Discussing
Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
Moo Live
Jan 23 16:54
MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
王婧彤0722 : In the current market I feel in the US, the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time. Why? I have missed several interest rate hikes in a row, and I have clearly felt the rise in prices
! I hope the Fed will not only refer to official data, but also substantially see the current economic situation in the market, so if the unemployment rate remains constant, it will also raise interest rates once or twice in order to mitigate price increases; in my humble opinion, it probably won't even consider cutting interest rates until June next year - it just depends on the circumstances, whether interest rates will be raised or not, and not cut interest rates.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 王婧彤0722 : Agree, I can't even drink Cola right now; it's scary that it's expensive. If interest rates are raised to 6% and only cut in 2025, then long-term interest rates may actually reach 5.5%. At that time, stocks and bonds will collapse, and real estate may also collapse. 2024 is likely to be a year where cash is king.
Ringo想买包 : Just buy it, it's dark before dawn, uh, unplug the cable and wait for Happy New Year
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Ringo想买包 : Well, I avoided chasing ups and downs![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : So your guess is that the Fed won't just push the market in the direction of collapse? Will interest rates be cut as a last resort to avoid the risk of collapse as much as possible? Can I understand it that way?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP 王婧彤0722 : Lao Bao doesn't necessarily have to worry about how the market is going, but he must finance the Ministry of Finance's huge interest expenses. Moreover, if it continues like this, banks will inevitably go bankrupt again. Look at the trend of financial stocks; they have already begun to calculate this. Moreover, the general election is coming soon, and it's not easy to explain the mess.
decisive Beaver_4398 : As long as don’t over leverage on Tlt like Tmf . Just buy slowly at different stage . It might go over longer and higher . It’s not just economy . It might be financial war .
mubbiiee : I made the same inference. This still assumes that S&P EPS remains the same. EPS will definitely decrease at high interest rates when burning goose, which means Davis will double kill. Well, it's very reasonable to work until 3000.. It made me really want to empty qqq
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : Will it be good to go short again next year![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : As soon as you say this, my pattern instantly opens up, and I'm thrilled.