Which one is the “buy” Asahi vs. Kirin? The liquor tax reform in October was a game changer in the market share dispute

Beer benefits due to alcohol tax reform, and new genres have virtually disappeared
What is the liquor tax reform in OctoberThe main purpose is to unify the tax rates for beer-based beverages divided into 3 types: beer, sparkling wine, and new genres. As a prelude to the 2026/10 unification, the tax amount for beer will now be reduced from 70 yen to 63.35 yen per 350 ml, while the new genre will be raised from 37.8 yen to 46.99 yen, the same amount as sparkling wine.The new genre, where tax rates are on par with sparkling wine, will lose the significance of “third beer”。

Also, the tax rate for sake has been lowered, fruit wine has been raised, and both tax rates are on line.

However, according to a questionnaire survey conducted by the Beer Brewers Association in June, we can see circumstances where the results are not that simple.
According to the questionnaire results, among beer drinkers (679 people), only less than 20% answered that the amount of beer they drink “increases” when 6 cans (350 ml) of beer become about 100 yen cheaper, and “no change” accounted for close to 80%. Also, only 6.1% of non-beer drinkers (521 people) answered that the amount of beer they drink would “increase.”There is a possibility that the liquor tax reform will not be such a strong tailwind for the increase in demand for beer。
Meanwhile, of the new genre drinkers (328 people), less than 30% answered that when 6 cans (350 ml) of the new genre were about 100 yen higher, the amount they drank the new genre would “decrease.”Beer was the top alcoholic beverage (multiple answers) that I think I would drink instead when the price of a new genre rises, with 46.2%, but this time Chuhai Sour, where the tax rate remains unchanged, has risen to 36.3%。

Kirin leads Asahi in Can Chuhai
For this reason, in addition to beer, the product strategy of the brewery industry, which is preparing for liquor tax reform, there is also a movement to strengthen canned chuhai. The share dispute between Asahi and Kirin is not limited to beer-based beverages, where the market is shrinking, and it is expected that it will expand into competition including RTD, where the market is expanding.
Leading in the field of canned chuhai are Takara Brewery, which mainly focuses on shochu, Suntory, and Kirin. The sales volume of Kirin's 2022 RTD (an abbreviation for Ready To Drink, something you can drink immediately after opening the lid, such as canned chuhai or canned highballs) has risen to about 90% of beer.
However, there is a possibility that Kirin and Suntory, which have Mercians in the group, will be affected by the increase in the wine tax rate.

Attention is being paid to what kind of impact the October liquor tax reform will have on the brewing industry.

Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Beer Brewers Association