Who is the most 'investor-first' prime minister? A thorough analysis of the finance and monetary policies of the candidates in the fiercely contested LDP presidential election and their impact on the stock market!

Following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of resignation, a notice will be issued on September 12,and it has been reported that 11 people have either declared their candidacy or expressed their intention to run in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election to be held on the 27th,resulting in a chaotic and competitive situation.The economic policies of the next prime minister will have a considerable impact on stock prices and the macroeconomy.It is expected that something will happen.
Therefore, the stance of each candidate on fiscal policy and the Bank of Japan's rate hike policy will be analyzed based on past reports, statements, etc.

Lineup of rumored candidates for the presidential election
(Support rate based on a public opinion poll on "Suitable person for the next LDP president" by Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have declared their candidacy>
Taro KonoDigital Minister (7%)
Takanoyuki KobayashiFormer Minister of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru IshibaFormer Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)

<Campaign prospects (based on reports)>
Shinjiro KoizumiFormer Minister of the Environment (23%)
Yoshimasa HayashiChief Cabinet Secretary (2%)
Toshimitsu MotegiSecretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)

<Expressed willingness to run (based on reports)>
Ken SaitoMinister of Economy, Trade and Industry (1%)
Sanae TakaiMinister in charge of Economic and Security Affairs (11%)
Katsunobu KatoFormer Chief Cabinet Secretary (1%)
Yoichi KamikawaForeign Minister (6%)
Seiko NodaFormer Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)

Is an active fiscal policy and cautious stance on rate hikes optimal for a stock market rally
In generalStimulative policies are implemented through active fiscal spending and monetary easing, leading to a rise in stock prices.It is also believed that.The previous stock market highs were significantly contributed by the depreciation of the yen due to Japan's low interest rates creating a yield differential with the United States, boosting the performance of export-related stocks.has been made.
Conversely,pushing for interest rate hikes tends to result in a stronger yen and a decrease in stock prices. As one of the factors contributing to the "Reiwa Black Monday" on August 5th, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned the possibility of further interest rate hikes after deciding on additional rate hikes at the end of July, leading to a stronger yen.What is the financial and fiscal policy stance of each candidate?

On the other hand,Mr. KonoAt a press conference on the 26th, he stated, " Building an economy on the sacrifice of public finances, such economic growth is unlikely to be sustainable.」「It is time to restore fiscal discipline." (Bloomberg, 26th) and clearly expressed the intention to prioritize fiscal discipline.Ishiba also stated, " With the yen depreciation, prices have soared, and with active fiscal policies, debt has increased. If interest rates are raised, the cost of government bonds will balloon, making it impossible to budget. Before it becomes completely impossible, we should discuss transitioning to 'wise spending'.""(As of August 20, according to Bunshun Online). In addition, Mr. Hayashiserves as the co-chairman of a bipartisan parliamentary alliance, the "Meeting of Bipartisan Members Considering Independent Fiscal Estimation Agencies," which advocates the need for independent analysis for fiscal health.
Mr. Kamikawahas published his responses to a Shizuoka Shimbun survey from August 2003 on his official website, stating that the government should not pass on debts (deficit government bonds) to future generations through 'lavish fiscal policy,' but instead promote policies that encourage greater proactive efforts by the private sector (specifically focusing on bold deregulation and measures for small and medium-sized enterprises based on new industrial policies).It is necessary to move forward with policies that encourage greater proactive efforts by the private sector (specifically focusing on bold deregulation and measures for small and medium-sized enterprises based on new industrial policies) rather than passing on debts (deficit government bonds) to future generations through 'lavish fiscal policy,' as stated in a 2003 Shizuoka Shimbun survey response on his official website.There is a possibility of increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates depending on the next prime minister.

On the other hand,Mr. Kobayashistated at the press conference announcing his candidacy,"I hope the Bank of Japan will make every effort to engage in careful and stable dialogue with the market," and also indicated a view that Vice Governor Shinichi Uchida himself has acknowledged a certain responsibility for the rapid appreciation of the yen and stock prices following the stock market crash on August 5, calling on the Bank of Japan to take a stance of considering the market.It is clear that in order for the virtuous cycle of prices and wages to continue, the economy must move towards a interest-bearing economy.saidMr. KatoAlso, Bank of Japan is seeking a careful response that does not put a sudden burden on the economy." (According to Vroom Bloomberg dated 20th).