Which prime minister is the most "investor first"? A thorough analysis of the candidates' fiscal and monetary policies and their impact on the stock market in the fiercely contested Liberal Democratic Party leadership election!

Following the announcement of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's resignation, the election will be announced on September 12th,and it has been reported that 11 people have already declared their candidacy or expressed their intention to run in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, which will be held on the 27th.and it is reported to be in a chaotic and competitive situation.The economic policies of the next prime minister are expected to have a significant impact on stock prices and the macroeconomy.Japan's economy could be significantly influenced by the economic policies of the next prime minister.
Therefore, we will analyze the stance of each candidate's fiscal policy and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy based on past reports and statements.

The lineup of candidates for the election of the party president
(Support rate according to the opinion poll "The most suitable person for the next LDP party president" by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have announced their candidacy>
Taro KonoDigital Minister (7%)
Takayuki KobayashiFormer Minister of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru IshibaFormer Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)

<Expected to run (based on reports)>
Shinjiro KoizumiFormer Minister of the Environment (23%)
Yoshimasa HayashiChief Cabinet Secretary (2%)
Toshimitsu MotegiSecretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)

<Eager to run (based on reports)>
Ken SaitoMinister of Economy, Trade and Industry (1%)
Sanae TakichiMinister of Economic Security (11%)
Katsunobu KatoFormer Chief Cabinet Secretary (1%)
Kamikawa YokoForeign Minister (6%)
Noda SeikoFormer Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)

Is an aggressive fiscal policy and cautious stance on interest rate hikes the best approach for a stock market rally?
In generalWhen a stimulating policy, such as aggressive fiscal spending and monetary easing, is implemented, it leads to an increase in stock prices.It is considered. In addition,The previous stock market highs were largely attributed to the depreciation of the yen due to Japan's low interest rates creating a interest rate differential with the US, which boosted the performance of export-related stocks.So far.
Conversely,Promoting interest rate hikes tends to lead to a stronger yen and a decline in stock prices.As a factor in the 'Black Monday of Reiwa' on August 5th, it is noted that the Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda's mention of the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the end of July led to a stronger yen.

On the other hand, Mr. Konosaid in a press conference on the 26th of his candidacy announcement.Creating an economy on the sacrifices of public finances, such economic growth is unlikely to be sustainable. It is time to restore fiscal discipline.According to Bloomberg on the 26th, he stated that he made his intention to focus on fiscal discipline clear.Mr. Ishibaalso mentioned, "The yen depreciation led to inflation, and the debt increased with active fiscal policy. If interest rates are raised, the cost of national debt will increase, making it impossible to budget. Before it becomes completely hopeless, we should discuss changing to 'wise spending.'"(Online Bunshun on August 20) In addition, he stated. LinServing as co-chair of the bipartisan parliamentary league 'The Association of Bipartisan Lawmakers Considering an Independent Fiscal Estimation Agency,' which advocates the necessity of independent analysis by a neutral institution for fiscal health.
Mr. KamikawaOn his official website, Mr. Kamikawa has posted the results of a Shizuoka Shimbun survey from August 2003, in which he stated, 'Rather than passing on deficits (government bonds) to future generations through 'pork-barrel spending,' it is necessary to promote policies that encourage more proactive private sector efforts (specifically, measures for small and medium-sized enterprises based on bold deregulation and new industrial policies).'Depending on the next prime minister, there is a possibility of increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.When the Bank of Japan decided on an additional interest rate hike in July, there is also a view that the comments of several members of parliament had an influence.

Lin
Serving as co-chair of the bipartisan parliamentary league 'The Association of Bipartisan Lawmakers Considering an Independent Fiscal Estimation Agency,' which advocates the necessity of independent analysis by a neutral institution for fiscal health.There is a possibility that the next prime minister will increase involvement in the Bank of Japan.There is also a risk of a stock price decline.
Mr. Konoappeared on Bloomberg Television on July 17th and said, "The Bank of Japan needs to raise its policy interest rate.". Furthermore, Mr. Motegialso said in a lecture in Tokyo on July 22nd, "It is necessary to clarify the policy of normalizing monetary policy, including considering gradual interest rate hikes, more clearly. and called for interest rate hikes.
In response to this,Mr. HayashiIn a press conference by the Chief Cabinet Secretary on July 18th, the government acknowledged that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is being carried out to achieve the price stability target. The specific methods should be left to the Bank of Japan.said (Prime Minister's Office's HP) and put a stop to Kono's movement. Kono also revised his statement at a press conference on the 19th, saying that "monetary policy should be decided by the Bank of Japan" (Digital Agency's HP).

On the other hand,Mr. Kobayashiat the press conference where he declared his candidacy,he expressed his desire for the Bank of Japan to engage in careful and stable dialogue with the market.He also indicated that Vice President Uchida himself has acknowledged a certain level of responsibility for the rapid appreciation of the yen and the surge in stock prices following the stock market crash on August 5, calling for the Bank of Japan to consider the market.He states, "It is clear that in order to continue the positive cycle of prices and wages, we must move towards an economy with interest rates."Mr. Kato said,"also,The Bank of Japan is calling for careful measures that do not impose a rapid burden on the economy."(As of the 20th Bloomberg)"

There are also industries that benefit from the promotion of growth strategies.
There is also a possibility.
The name of Mr. Koizumi, who is mentioned most in opinion polls of various media as the most suitable for the next prime minister.Mr. KoizumiHe is not very vocal about fiscal and monetary policy, but he is proactive in promoting growth strategies.It is expected that particular emphasis will be placed on fully lifting the ban on ride sharing, nurturing startups, and achieving a circular economy.and other areas are believed to be the focus.
Mr. MogiParticipated in a startup event in Kyoto on July 5th,and stated that startups will "hold the key to the Japanese economy."Furthermore,He expressed the intention to support fundraising for startups by selling investment trusts that incorporate unlisted stocks, using the new NISA (July 5th edition of the Nikkei Shimbun).In addition,Regarding ride-sharing, 'We should announce a policy of full liberalization.'He has the belief.
Mr. TakashiJapan has strengthsin fields such as robots, materials, semiconductors, quantum, anime and gaming.he advocates for strategic support in the quantum field, including the development of domestic quantum computers and support for quantum technology.Mr. KobayashiisActive development of seabed resources such as methane hydrates and rare earthsis mentioned.
Mr. Saitostated in the New Year's message for 24 years as the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry,further support for investment and development in semiconductors, rechargeable batteries, AI, quantum, space, etc.Source/Reference: House of Representatives, various ministries and agencies' websites, official websites of various parties, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Reuters, Asahi Shimbun, Mainichi Shimbun, Bunshun Online