Why am I in no hurry to enter tlt
On the one hand, I hold some vclts, which are also long-term bonds, and the dividend rate is over 5%, so even if I get caught, I don't lose money. However, TLT's dividend ratio is lower than that of short-term treasury bonds. If it does not rise, it is a loss of opportunity cost.
On the other hand, I'm not afraid to go short. 88 didn't buy, 90 didn't buy, break through 92 didn't buy, all 93. Isn't that a lot of empty hands?
I used to be upset because I was taking time off. But after being bombarded by the market a few times, I'm no longer afraid to go short. Let's analyze it calmly:
If a soft landing is achieved, the economy is good, and interest rates are cut slowly, although TLT will also rise, it will definitely outperform the stock market. A soft landing is a double hit for the stock market, while TLT is 17 times the leverage of interest rates, which is not enough to outperform the stock market.
If it were a real hard landing, sooner or later the Federal Reserve would go out of its way to save the economy. TLT will even break through the all-time high. Even if you re-enter the market for 100, you will earn more than 50%. There's no need to be afraid to hold in such an uncertain environment.
Fish head has more thorns and less meat, so don't eat it.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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Tesla 1st : Canada cut interest rates, will the US follow suit? Will TTL go up?
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Tesla 1st : Thanks for your attention, but I've already answered your question in the article![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Tesla 1st 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : I personally think interest rate cuts are coming soon, Canada has cut interest rates, and it can also be said that a turning point has formed, but the pace of interest rate cuts is slower than previously predicted. It may take a year to cut interest rates by a total of 1% = increase TTL by 17%...
高贵的阿德莱德 OP Tesla 1st : Slowly cutting interest rates is a soft landing path. If everything goes well, the stock market will outperform the bond market
Tesla 1st : Oh... thank you
Paul Anthony Chin : tq My lord and bigger your wonderful family together with this tq God bless All rights amen