Why did Micron plummet 8%? Take NVIDIA with you too! A chance to buy in the spotlight?
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$After financial results were announced on 6/26, stock prices plummeted 8% due to overtime trading. In response to it, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It also fell 2% due to overtime trading, and semiconductors generally had a sales advantage.
Micron Technology, a leading semiconductor memory companyisHBM is essential in AI data centersIn the (high bandwidth memory) market3rd place in the world market share(1st place is SK Hynix, 2nd place is Samsung Electronics)It has a high level of attention as an AI-related brand. Micron and $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$There are also analysts who evaluate it along with NVIDIA, which is representative of the AI boom. The analyst said that both companies can acquire positions as AI leaders similar to NVIDIA, and 3 companies“AI 3 Musketeers”It's called.
Also,Micron will begin mass production of the “HBM3E” mounted on NVIDIA's AI semiconductor “H200” GPU in February this yearI did it. At the financial results briefing on 6/26, the management team revealed that feedback has been received from customers that the “HBM3E” has 30% lower power consumption compared to competitors' products.
3Q results and prospects for AI semiconductor memory are strong
●3Q (fiscal year ending March to May) results: Sales increased 80% and turned into surplus
turnover: 6.81 billion dollars, up 82% from the same period last year, market forecast: 6.67 billion dollars (Bloomberg tally, same as below)
Adjusted earnings per share: $0.62, year-over-year loss of $1.43, market forecast: $0.50
Among them, sales of products for data centers increased by 50% or more compared to the previous quarter due to rapid expansion in AI demand. Market share expanded in high-profit AI-related product categories such as HBM, high-capacity DIMMs (used to increase computer memory capacity), and data center SSDs (storage devices using semiconductor memory for data centers). While the supply and demand situation in the industry continued to improve, implementing drastic price increases also led to an improvement in profits.
●AI semiconductor memory outlook: strong
What analysts paid the most attention to in the current financial results was the outlook for Micron's AI semiconductor memory. This is because this field has the most room for growth for Micron, and the impact on business results is expected to increase in the future.
What analysts paid the most attention to in the current financial results was the outlook for Micron's AI semiconductor memory. This is because this field has the most room for growth for Micron, and the impact on business results is expected to increase in the future.
At the financial results briefing, the management team said”Demand for data center products is strong, driven by AIThat's it,” she explained. “HBM3E” recorded sales exceeding 100 million dollars in the 3rd quarter, and it was revealed that profit margins exceeded the profit margins of the DRAM business and the company as a whole. At the same time,HBM's sales in 2024 will be hundreds of millions of dollars、It is expected to reach several billion dollars in 2025I indicated that. The reason we can show such an outlook is that the 2024 and 2025 HBM production parts have already been sold out.
● According to the 4Q guidance, sales are almost in line with market expectations, that is, there are no surprises
turnover: $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion; market forecast: $7.58 billion (almost consistent with median)
Adjusted earnings per share: $1 to $1.16, market forecast: $1.02
Since the company began shipping the “HBM3E” in February this year, there were many investors who expected that the 4Q sales guidance would exceed market expectations. Some analysts predicted sales would rise to 8 billion dollars before financial results were announced. The guidance, which was almost consistent with market expectations, seems to have made some investors feel unsatisfactory.
●“Buy with rumors, sell with facts”
However, Micron's stock price has risen 67% since the beginning of the year (until 6/26). Stock prices continued in anticipation of good performance, and it seems that investors in line with the investment motto “buy with rumors and sell with facts” carried out profit-taking sales after receiving guidance without surprises.
However, Micron's stock price has risen 67% since the beginning of the year (until 6/26). Stock prices continued in anticipation of good performance, and it seems that investors in line with the investment motto “buy with rumors and sell with facts” carried out profit-taking sales after receiving guidance without surprises.
Micron is part of the “AI 3 Musketeers”isWith AI semiconductor memoryIt lagged behind SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which have the 1st and 2nd place market share in the world,they are rapidly trying to catch up. By starting to supply products for NVIDIA's AI semiconductors,It is expected that market share will expand in the future。
At the financial results briefing on 6/26, the management team said, “Recently, our customers announced a long-term AI server product roadmap, and we plan to release new products with greatly improved functionality every year for the next few years. With Micron's technology and product leadership, we're in a great position to support this growth.”
Based on the content of the text, it seems that “our customers” indicate NVIDIA. In other words,Management sees NVIDIA releasing new AI semiconductors every year as a major business opportunity for the companyit seems. At the same time, managementPlans to expand product mixIt shows,“We plan to ship to an even wider customer base in 2025That's it,” she revealed. There seems to be a possibility that AI semiconductor memory will be supplied to others other than NVIDIA.
Based on the above outlook, the management teamSignificant sales expansion and improvement in profitability are expected in fiscal 2025。
“Looking ahead to 2025, the environment is ready when significant profits can be achieved in fiscal 2025 due to demand for 'AI PCs' and 'AI smartphones' and the continued growth of AI in data centers. As product portfolio shifts to products with high profit margins (HBM, etc.) are progressing, profitability is also expected to improve drastically.”
Overall, there were no surprises in the 4Q guidance, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ There was a big drop due to overtime trading on the 26th,Based on the favorable earnings forecast for 2025、Adjustments may be an opportunity to buy in the spotlight。
Created 6/27/24 Market Analyst Amelia
Source: Company materials and created by MooMoo Securities from Bloomberg
Source: Company materials and created by MooMoo Securities from Bloomberg
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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182628805 : Thank you very much
wwolfvct : Other than pre-woven materials
If you don't have a lot of things
isn't it going up...
(@_@;)
ありがとう星 : I have it as a MU and NVDA set, but it's been the last 2 to 3 days where I've become somewhat uneasy