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Palantir
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CoreWeave
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Alphabet-C
-- 156.060 
Why does this stock go down more than it goes up?
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FANCY PANTS : Buncha shorts. Elon and his fan boys don't want it to succeed since it is competition to Starlink.
FelixTW OP FANCY PANTS : But it doesn't make sense
They should spend money improving SpaceX's competitiveness in the satellite market instead of the stock market
FANCY PANTS FelixTW OP : they should, but ASTS is the superior project and is years ahead. Stsrlink can't catchup so instead they try and manipulate the stock.
it will bite them in the end.
JoshCarter4 : It’s a pre-revenue company. There’s a lot of potential in the future, but this is a long term investment. Think 3-5 years minimum. It’s very early stages now, and is as likely to go to 0 as it is to go to 100 at this point.
If ASTS can commit to building and launching all of its minimum satellites and start realising stable revenue, then it’ll likely begin a proper upward trajectory.
FelixTW OP JoshCarter4 : Do you also invest in the company? If yes, how much faith do you have in it?
I really feel complicated with it because the CEO entered forward contracts for "financial planning" which has undermined market confidence (in my opinion)
JoshCarter4 FelixTW OP : I do, though not in moomoo (yet). In the process of transferring money into this account to make my purchase. I’m personally very bullish on them and their likelihood of growing extensively, even with Starlink as a competitor. They’ve pretty much locked in some markets both in US and abroad, and have a clear and achievable roadmap to launching the satellites. I may revise my thoughts if they don’t follow through, but they’ve been comfortably beating expectations.
(The recent “missed expectations” had a nonsense bar to reach; kinda like saying NVDA will be a 50 trillion dollar company in 3 months. So the recent earnings report reached and in some cases exceeded expectations imo)
FelixTW OP JoshCarter4 : Thank you so much for answering me that comforts me a lot.
The only thing I'm worried about is whether or not they're going to launch the satellites as expected in Q1 2025, since they postponed the launch (of first 5 bluebird satellites) some time ago, and that's caused the stock to crash a lot.
Do you think the stock price is supported at $23? I don't think it's a big deal if the Asts share price is only fluctuating a little bit, I just hope it's moving up in the long run.
JoshCarter4 FelixTW OP : As for the forward contracts for financial planning: he’s basically sold covered calls with a strike price of $34, using only like 3% of his total shares. Considering that he’s not gotten a salary for this role, I think it’s fair and makes sense. $34 by Jan 2026 might seem low, but also remember that this is a very long term investment plan. Kinda like if you invested in Apple in 2014 at ~$20 a share, you’d only get the massive returns of ~$226 a share in 2024. 10 years for 10x return.
This isn’t a get rich quick company, this is an “invest and forget” (or well, invest and pay attention to news and progress to make sure things follow timelines and budgets and there’s no fraud happening etc.)
Edit: the covered call bit isn’t really accurate, but just wanted to make it easily understandable to those who have a cursory understanding of options. What actually happened is that ASTS CEO Avellan entered a forward contract to sell ~3% of his shares in Jan 2026 for a price between 18-34 dollars. So if prices go up massively, he still has 97% of his shares. This helps to provide him some income for 5+ years of no salary without crashing the price by selling it at market, while also still incentivizing him to grow the share value to at least $34, which is still an amazing 30-40% increase!
JoshCarter4 FelixTW OP : I personally think it’s a bit on the higher side now. It’s a bit inflated due to a mix of pricing in exceeding expectations and how it’s been seen more recently as a meme stock. It’s probably a fair value closer to around $20-$25 a share now, give or take. I could see it being as low as $15 a share without thinking anything negative about it (though I did learn of it late and entered at a higher price than $15
)
As to whether it *will* move up in the long run: that depends on whether they achieve their targets. They could be the next Apple, or they could be the next Commodore, and the real Apple comes to replace it.
ASTS is a market disruptor (because if it’s successful, it will demolish telcos the way Netflix demolished Blockbuster), and a promising leading player, but that’s not a *guarantee* that it’ll actually succeed. I personally believe it will, but that’s just my opinion.
FelixTW OP JoshCarter4 : I got it
I'll keep it in mind and keep an eye out for news on this company.
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