Why Has Tesla Surged Recently?

Tesla's stock has surged, reaching its highest level in two months. According to the latest news from Barclays analysts, the reason for this rise is likely due to better-than-expected sales in China and market anticipation of the company's Robotaxi plans. These factors could continue to drive the stock price up. The analyst estimates that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries will reach 470,000 units, higher than the market expectation of 461,000 units, and points out that this beat is entirely driven by growth in China. This provides fundamental support for Tesla ahead of the Robotaxi Conference. The market expectations for the Robotaxi Conference are high, with many analysts, including Aggi himself, believing it could be a pivotal moment for Tesla.

Investors want to know about the timeline for commercial operation of Robotaxis, considerations around technology, regulation, logistics, and the current cost structure of this business, as well as its future prospects. Additionally, investors might be looking forward to any announcements from Musk about new vehicles, with many speculating that the Robotaxis will be based on the design of a new vehicle model, which could give an idea of the cost structure of the new vehicle. Any updates on timelines provided by Musk would be seen as positive.

We should have reasonable expectations for the Robotaxi Conference. Historically, Tesla's stock price tends to fall after such events. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a post-conference decline. Based on my own experience using Tesla's vehicles, along with videos and reviews from other drivers, I remain cautious about the commercialization timeline of Robotaxis. While Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature is impressive, whether it justifies the cost remains uncertain. Even if the technology is sufficiently advanced, regulatory issues may still take some time to resolve. Thus, my focus for the Robotaxi Conference will not be on getting a specific timeline from Musk but rather on observing the progress path of autonomous driving and determining whether Tesla’s Robotaxi is no longer a question of feasibility but rather one of timing.