Why I'm playing TSLA puts today

Guys, we have an insane earnings week and I just wanted to put in my two cents for TSLA today.
Here’s what they're expecting:
Earnings per share: 62 cents expected
Revenue: $24.77 billion expected
Just for comparison: A year ago, Tesla reported 91 cents of EPS and sales of $24.9 billion. First and formost, I'm getting a put spread. Not puts. IV is just way too high for just puts. Spreads reduce the IV and focuses more on the underlying. But why puts? The stock actually PUMPED hard last earnings. Well, let me explain.
Lower sales volume and vehicle prices are behind the expected decline. Tesla delivered about 444,000 vehicles in the second quarter at an average realized price of $42,500. A year ago, the company shipped about 466,000 vehicles at an average price of about $44,000.
There's really no indicators telling me that they're doing better as a constant decline in sales will probably continue well into 2025. Just look at the headlines. Musk's cybertruck is a complete failure. The tesla semi is a dud. The tesla roaster isn't out and will never be out. And his other projects? Hyperloop, solar panel shingles? All busts.
Yea I'm expecting a >10% drop today. TSLA 7/26 240p is just a bit too expensive for an earning play, so this is why I'm getting the spread. Buying the 240p while selling the 225p (same exp) seems like a smart choice to me. I can grab the spread for 477 bucks right now at the time of writing. Meaning, if TSLA drops as much as I expect today, this spread should profit over 3x. Good luck!