$SIA (C6L.SG)$ : Why SIA shares plummeted from $6.94 to $6.6...
$SIA (C6L.SG)$ : Why SIA shares plummeted from $6.94 to $6.62 despite super good FY2023/2024 report ? Here is my own analysis, why ? However, please pardon me if my analysis is wrong.
Yes, FY2023/2024, SIA’s financial report was indeed excellent and had scale heights ! That’s an incredible achievement in its aviation history, ever !
I, hereby, wish to express my heartiest thanks to all staff of SIA for working so hard to achieve such marvellous results. They deserved the 8 months bonus. Do keep up the best effort.
However, why is it that for no apparent reason its share plummeted from $6.94 to $6.62 instead of climbing to $7.30 ?
If results are excellent, dividends are good and MCB redemption cannot drive price back to Covid-19 levels, nothing else can.
Below is my own analysis, why ? Hopefully, it is justifying enough to clear our doubts, if any. Again, please bear in mind that this is just my own analysis and I can be wrong.
The company has a set of very complex measuring figures.
Example, meeting analysts' targets, like Gross Profit, Net Profit, PLF, ROE, YOY comparison, Quarter to Quarter comparison, Operating Cost, Oil Price, Staff Salary, Competitors, etc, etc.
However, if one of those figures or points is weak, analysts are quick enough to pick on those weak figures and downgrade SIA right away, even the rest of the measuring figures or points are excellent.
They are also on the lookout for weak future forecast to downgrade it even if there are distance away wars. Or set rediculously unachievable target price and downgrade it when the result is out, causing it's price to plummete quickly and panic selling.
Traders or analysts are smart people, they also read the same chart as we do, they used Technical Analysis tools like 30 days, 10 days Moving Ave, Japanese Candle Sticks, Stochastic, Bollinger Band, Volumes Size, Stop Lost Detector, etc, to analyse and predict the next price movements and most importantly the Stop-lost price.
As such, they knew exactly where the stop-lost levels are, and they will try and trigger the stop lost, by selling 100 shares, causing it to nosedive quickly to the next support level. And if the support level fails to hold, the next support level will be trigger again. Especially, in thin volume environments. Also known as system trading. Domino effect.
SIA is very sensitive to downside selling and buying up is slow like tortoise. Unfortunately, its majority shareholders are mainly the local retail investors and not the Big Institution, therefore, it is easily attack.
Therefore, even super good profit earnings, good dividends, its share can free falls very easily should there be any bad news. And for so many good news like good earning reports, good dividends, good expansion plans, it simply doesn’t shoot up. And kept subdued at around current level or even down, even if Dow Jones Industrial Average is at its record 40,000 level.
Hopefully, this coming year end, we will receive 15 cents dividend compare to 10 cents, up 5 cents from 12 months ago. Just a very conservative dividends' increment hope. I am not hoping for huge capital gain already.
Once again, I can be wrong in my personal analysis. This is just for education, entertainment and pleasure reading only.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Maniac Fool : Also prone to oil prices fluctuating
Meng PaPa OP Maniac Fool : Frankly speaking, I am not so fearful of oil price fluctuation as what most analysts used to haunt us, I am extremely concerned about another round of virus attack.
Kind Pumpkin Meng PaPa OP : yes recent spikes again
Meng PaPa OP Kind Pumpkin : Yes, another 3 years of Lockdown is on the card.
Kind Pumpkin : down means can get alot of good buys too
Meng PaPa OP Kind Pumpkin : Yes, everybody is waiting.