Why the long face?

Just three months ago, it looked as though the RBA had won. March quarter inflation came in at just 3.6 per cent, way below the December 2022 quarter peak of 7.8 per cent.

But in the past few months, we've seen it kick back up. The June quarter is likely to come in at anywhere between 3.9 per cent and 4.1 per cent year-on-year. That's a significant lift from the previous quarter and higher than it has previously forecast.

Money markets right now have just a one-in-five chance that the RBA will hike at its next meeting but if the trimmed mean inflation — a price movement reading with some volatile elements stripped out — comes in at 1.1 per cent or more for the quarter, it will come under real pressure to push through another rate increase. $S&P/ASX 200 OPIC (OXJO.AU)$ $ASX Ltd (ASX.AU)$