Wild Guess 2025… S&P 500

晴瓦林 : This thing will be back to 4880 soon

ひな☆彡 SOXL(Bull) OP 晴瓦林 : Ok that’s pessimistic… I will be losing lots of money if that’s the case….

晴瓦林 ひな☆彡 SOXL(Bull) OP : Here's why I think we're in a recession. Every time Sahm Rule gets triggered, the US will enter a recession after 3 months. But there was a false alarm recently in 2024 September and another in 1959. Even in 1959, the US still entered a recession after 6 months after a false alarm. This model is way more accurate than the treasury yield curve in terms of minimum severity. The treasury yield curve predicted the US economy would enter a recession in 2022, but it wasn't severe enough to be considered a recession. Wiki considered it a market decline rather than a recession. I thought they didn't consider it a recession because the unemployment rate hadn't increased. So, 2022 is just a bear market. But the one in 2025 is a real recession, the real one. Now, I'm going to wait for one of the earnings reports from the magnificent 7 or just Nvidia to pop the S&P 500 bubble.

Sweee 晴瓦林 : predicting market crash is the most difficult thing to do, predicting market bottom after crash is easier

105106443 : and also predicting stock market makes you look like a fool

晴瓦林 Sweee : Whatever you say, predictions have never been easier. I just do whatever information I can get on my hands to make my prediction more accurate.

ひな☆彡 SOXL(Bull) OP 105106443 : Yeah I am fool too

晴瓦林 105106443 : If being a fool makes money, then why not do it? You have to make money in some way. Better than putting fries in the bag.