Will ChargePoint (CHPT) Revenue From Subscription Help Its Earnings?

ChargePoint is expected to show a fall in quarterly revenue when it reports results, expected to report a 18.5% decrease in revenue to $89.845 million from $110.28 million a year ago.

This is inline with the guidance given by ChargePoint on 04 September, for the period ended 31 October was for revenue between $85.00 million and $95.00 million.

The consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate is expected to be a loss of 17 cents.

ChargePoint has launched the ChargePoint Essential cloud plan, providing an alternative to standard cloud subscriptions. This plan features a competitively priced software fee that is funded by driver payments for charging.

Though this innovative new offerings like ChargePoint’s Essential cloud plan lower the barrier to entry by shouldering ongoing costs and deploying the $699 CPF50 charger to minimize upfront investment,

The concerns of future policy-making decisions have investors weighing the impact on the EV industry as a whole.

As of 03 Nov trading, ChargePoint have lost 2.52%. Investors have lost more than 50% year-to-date on ChargePoint stock price, so can this cloud plan be the strategy to overcome the concerns?

Electric vehicle-related stocks are trading lower after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Investors may be weighing future policy-making decisions that could impact the industry.

Trump’s return to office signals a sharp pivot away from the climate-focused policies pursued by the Biden-Harris administration.

Investors are reacting to fears that Trump's proposed policy shifts could undermine the EV sector, including infrastructure developments crucial to ChargePoint's business model. During Trump campaign, he had made it clear that he intends to roll back green energy subsidies and incentives that have been key to the growth of EV infrastructure. His tax policy agenda includes rescinding federal tax credits for green energy projects, a move expected to slow the pace of EV adoption as it would make EVs more expensive for consumers.

Under the Biden administration, the EV market benefited from substantial federal support, including charging infrastructure tax credits and rebates that have helped ChargePoint expand its network and accelerate growth. Trump’s proposed cuts to these initiatives raise questions about the future demand for charging stations, a primary revenue driver for ChargePoint.

This would see ChargePoint revenue taking a hit as the main contributor of ChargePoint revenue is from networked charging station.

In the fiscal second quarter 2025, ChargePoint announces an estimated $41 million reduction in annualized GAAP operating expenses and $38 million reduction in annualized non-GAAP operating expenses.

So for this earnings result I would be looking if ChargePoint is able to increase the subscription contributor to its revenue from the cloud plan implementation.

Trump's plan to impose a universal 10% tariff on all imports, alongside a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could increase costs for manufacturers and suppliers in the EV supply chain, as many EV components, such as batteries, are still sourced internationally.

For ChargePoint, which relies on a global supply chain for equipment and infrastructure, these tariffs could increase costs, squeeze margins and limit the availability of critical components, potentially delaying installations. Higher tariffs could also drive up prices for EVs, reducing consumer demand, and further suppressing the market for charging networks.

The global electric vehicle (EV) charger market size accounted for USD 14.75 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 174.09 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 28% from 2024 to 2034.

Asia Pacific is estimated to be the dominant EV charger market in 2023. The Asia Pacific EV charger market is primarily driven by the increasing adoption of the EV charging infrastructure and growing demand for the electric vehicles. The surge in the adoption of EVs for public transport in the developing and highly populated countries like China and India is supporting the growth of the EV charger market. The developing economies like China, South Korea, and Japan are planning to increase the number of charging stations to promote the adoption of the electric vehicles in the country.

So with the tariffs that the new Trump administration is going to implement, we might see retaliation from the countries affected. And ChargePoint need to show their strategy of expanding into the Asia Pacific region as that is where the demand to increase number of charging stations is.

If we were to look at CHPT trading, it has been trading below the short-term MA for a long time, and there have been a bearish downside movement potential as there is no sign that short-term MA would be above long-term MA.

Even though we could see that MACD is trying to form upside trend, but MTF is giving a weak trend of downside, unless we could see an earnings surprise which could bring CHPT trading above the short-term MA, and this could make a reversal to the bullish side.

For now, I think market sentiment on this stock is still very low, as we could see that there is attempt to cross the short-term MA but failed each time it tried.

I would be monitoring this earnings call because I believe that the EV industry charging market is still there, especially for Asia Pacific it is growing, so I am more interested to see ChargePoint strategy in expanding into the Asia Pacific region to capture new market.

That might help them to overcome concerns of new Trump administration push back on green energy subsidies and incentives.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think ChargePoint would be able to propose a strategy to grow its charging network beyond U.S.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.