Will interest rates be cut as early as next March? Wall Street anticipates interest rate cuts of up to 275 BP

The Fed met at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on 12-13Leave the Federal Fund (FF) interest rate induction target unchanged at 5.25-5.50%It was decided. According to the latest interest rate and economic outlook announced at the same time, it was predicted that the FF interest rate induction target would drop 0.75 percentage points from the current level next year. Furthermore, the US November personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index announced on the 22nd rose 2.6% from the same month last year,The Fed is close to its target of 2%。
In the Federal Fund (FF) interest rate futures market, the US Federal Reserve (Fed)The view that interest rate cuts will begin in March is over 80%woven in. If this scenario were realized, the FF interest rate would be3.75-4.00% by the end of next yearIt will be lowered to the range.
No matter what monetary policy the Fed takes in 2024, interest rates will have an important impact on the broader economy and stock market evaluations, so investors need to pay close attention. The following is a summary of Wall Street's 2024 Fed movement forecast.

UBS “The Fed will cut interest rates by 275 BP”
According to UBS, the American economy will enter a recession in 2024, and the Fed will aggressively cut interest rates next year. Interest rate cutsIt starts at the FOMC in MarchI anticipate that.

McCauley: “There is no change in our view of policy”
By combining the rise in interest rates with the quantitative tightening policy implemented by the Fed to reduce the amount of bonds held on balance sheets,The financial situation is much tighter than it seems on the surfaceIt has become.
Coupled with this fact and the continuing decline in the inflation rate due to a slowdown in rent increases, Macquarie is the FedInterest rate cut by 225 BP next yearIt is suggested that it will be implemented.

Goldman Sachs: “FOMC will cut interest rates faster and at a faster pace”
Goldman Sachs top economist Jan Hatzius stated, “According to some indicators, the (inflation rate) trend is already at or close to 2%,” and this is a level close to 2%, which is the Fed's long-term inflation target.Interest rate cuts will be carried out quicklyIt means.