Next week's financial results and economic calendar (10/30 to 11/3) will the Bank of Japan meeting and the US FOMC concentrate, and will there be no wind or storm?
Japanese stocks are likely to continue falling next week. It is easy for investors to refrain from actively buying ahead of monetary policy decisions by central banks such as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy revisions are smoldering, and it has been pointed out that the CPI outlook for fiscal year 24 will be raised and that the yield curve control (YCC) policy will be revised again. If the CPI forecast exceeds 2%, the basis for the negative interest rate policy will fade, and speculation about canceling negative interest rates will suddenly rise. Despite such indications, the accommodative attitude has not changed,There is a large probability that the yen will continue to depreciate. At the Bank of Japan meeting and the US FOMCIt is almost certain that monetary policy will remain unchangedSo,Pay attention to what expressions officials use to explain policiesYou should do it.
The US FOMC assumes one more interest rate hike by the end of the year according to the quarterly economic outlook announced after the September meeting, and if interest rate hikes are postponed at this meeting as expected,It should be noted whether interest rate hikes at the December meeting are seen as certainthat's it. Since many employment-related indicators are announced after the middle of the week, such as the US October employment statistics, etc., it seems that if the Japan-US monetary policy meeting passes without wind, it seems that it will remain difficult to move due to the wait-and-see mood ahead of these.
What is an expected factor in the Japanese stock marketCompany performancethat's it. The trend of profit growth associated with reopening, automobile recovery production, price increases and yen depreciation effects, etc. seems to be strong. Also, attention is drawn to whether it is possible to get out of sluggish demandSemiconductor-related brandswill be announced one after another on 10/31.
What is an expected factor in the Japanese stock marketCompany performancethat's it. The trend of profit growth associated with reopening, automobile recovery production, price increases and yen depreciation effects, etc. seems to be strong. Also, attention is drawn to whether it is possible to get out of sluggish demandSemiconductor-related brandswill be announced one after another on 10/31.
1. The Nikkei Average continued to fall for 2 weeks, breaking the 31,000 yen level
2. Long-term interest rates at a high level for the first time in 10 years, Bank of Japan policy revision alert
3. In the US stock market, it received financial results announcements and sold to major high-tech companies
4. Rapid growth in US GDP from July to September 2021
5. The rise in US bond yields has come to a standstill
The US PCE core price index for 6.9 continues to slow
The Nikkei Average continued to drop for 2 weeks in the Tokyo Stock Market this week to 39,91 yen, 267.67 yen (0.86%) lower than the previous weekend. In the US stock market, the NASDAQ has fallen by more than 10% since July,It's in the adjustment area. The US Hi-Tech 7 financial results, which have driven the US stock market appreciation this year, are disappointing. Google's parent company $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Ya $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, Facebook's parent company $Meta Platforms (META.US)$Stock prices for both have been sluggish since financial results were announced, and financial results were well received $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$with $Amazon (AMZN.US)$that's all.
The current figures for financial results are not bad, but a cautious view of the future has also been shown,The US stock market is also becoming cautious about the futureSeems like it. “Most of our financial results will be left behind by economic data. What we have seen historically is the impact of interest rate hikes on business resultsThere is a time lag of about 2 years. What is very consistent isCorporate performance never bottomed out before the Fed ended the rate hike cycleThe cautious view that “that is,” is also heard.
The preliminary US GDP figure for the July-9 fiscal year increased 4.9% from the previous fiscal year, and is at a high level since the fourth quarter of 2021.The strength of the US economy stands out. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) core price index in September was at a low level for the first time in over 2 years compared to the previous year,The slowing trend continues。
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, Moomoo
ー MooMoo News Sherry
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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