Will Tesla's 'Robo-Taxi' debut be a historic event? What about the future stock performance?
US electric vehicle (EV) major. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$On October 10th (October 11th Japan time), they plan to hold the unveiling event of the highly anticipated RoboTaxi 'Cybercab' at Warner Brothers Discovery's movie studio in the Los Angeles area.
Tesla's stock has risen over 43% in the past 4 months, showing a daily fluctuation of over 3% this week. The movement of Tesla's stock depends on Mr. Musk's performance at 'We, Robot' on October 10th.
Historically, テスラの主要な新製品発表が株価の大きな変動につながることはよくあった。例えば、2016年3月にModel 3が発表された5日間、株価は12％上昇し、2022年にAIデーで人型ロボット「Optimus」が公開された5日間、株価は16％下落した。2024年9月5日にマスク氏が来年、Optimusの限定生産を開始すると発表したことで、株価は4％超急騰した。
Before the long-awaited Robo-taxi is announced on Thursday, the stock price seemed to pull back, but by the close of Tuesday, it had risen nearly 14% in the past month.
マスク氏は、これまでテスラを最大の電気自動車専門メーカーとして育ててきたが、既存の自動車メーカーからの参入が続く電気自動車を、これまで以上に販売することにはあまり興味がないのかもしれない。電気自動車価格の下落、アジア市場での競争激化、消費者需要の後退はすべて、テスラの収益率低下と目先の見通しの暗さの要因となっている。
Mask has been stating for the past few years that Tesla's future depends on artificial intelligence (ai) and robotics. Currently, Tesla is shifting its focus away from traditional automobile manufacturing and towards self-driving cars, robotics, and artificial intelligence (ai) related fields.
だが、また厳しい競争に直面している。 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$の自動運転車部門「Waymo」はすでに米国の一部で有料の自動運転タクシーサービスを開始し $General Motors (GM.US)$の「Cruise」と $Amazon (AMZN.US)$tesla's "Zoox" is also making significant progress. In addition, $Baidu (BIDU.US)$With the advancement of its robotaxi service "Apollo Go" in the domestic market, it is said to be planning to expand into the international market.
Tesla is set to hold a Robo-taxi unveiling event on October 10th. They plan to announce the progress of self-driving technology and business outlook. Moreover, it is said that the vehicles used for this Robo-taxi will be dedicated Robo-taxi vehicles, not existing models.
Mr. Mask envisions Robo-taxis as a fusion of the sharing economy and self-driving cars. Tesla owners can potentially generate income by adding their cars to the self-driving taxi fleet. This model, referred to as a fusion of Airbnb and Uber by Mr. Mask, has the potential to open up new revenue streams for Tesla while possibly transforming the ride-hailing industry.
On the 8th, Truist Securities confirmed their 'Hold' rating on Tesla and maintained the target stock price at $236.00. This evaluation is based on Tesla's 'We, Robot' Robo-taxi event scheduled for October 10, 2024.
At this event, the next-generation Robo-taxi equipped with new AI hardware and Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Version 13 is expected to be unveiled, aiming for a release in the second half of 2026. Additionally, Tesla is also expected to announce the second version of the Optimus robot. The focus of the event is said to be on the advancement of artificial intelligence rather than the announcement of new car models in the near future. However, according to Truist Securities, if Tesla surprises participants by unveiling new car models planned for 2025, it is believed to have a positive impact on the company's stock price.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, rates Tesla as a 'buy' with a target stock price of $300. Ives is more optimistic about the potential impact of self-driving taxis.
Ives noted, 'Tesla is the most undervalued AI stock in the market, and Musk and his team are expected to announce game-changing self-driving technology at this event.'
RBC Capital is quoting the potential of Tesla's future Robo-taxi business, raising the target stock price from $224 to $236, and maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. The company speculates that Robo-taxis could generate up to $1.7 trillion in global revenue by 2040, significantly improving Tesla's financial position.
On the other hand, Mizuho Securities has expressed concerns regarding potential new EU tariffs and is maintaining a neutral stance towards Tesla.
Mr. Nelson has rated Tesla as 'Hold' and kept the target stock price at $240.
Analysts point out the importance of Robo-Taxis and Optimus in Tesla's strategy, emphasizing the company's transition towards integrating advanced AI technology into its products.
Continuous efforts towards advancing Tesla's AI technology and its impact on future product development remain areas of interest for investors and industry stakeholders.
Even as the October 10th Robo-Taxi announcement approaches, Tesla's Autopilot and FSD features still require the driver to take responsibility beyond the range of ADAS and be prepared to take over driving when using these functions.
For Tesla to succeed in launching Robo-Taxis as a business, it will need to provide highly reliable self-driving technology. However, in the current circumstances, it is still unclear when or whether this will be achievable. In the Q2 2024 earnings report held on September 10th, Mr. Musk mentioned that the deployment of Robo-Taxis depends on technological advancements and regulatory approval.
According to CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson, past predictions by Mr. Musk himself regarding the market size of Robo-Taxis have been proven overly optimistic, warning that fully autonomous taxis are still several years away.
The individual stated, "Tesla has a long way to go to achieve level 4 automated driving certified by the automotive technology organization, which means the vehicle performs all crucial safety functions while driving and continuously monitors road conditions for advanced automated driving."
Therefore, it is advisable to consider that even if Tesla holds an announcement event for Robo-taxis on October 10th, it does not necessarily mean that production will start immediately or that the business launch is imminent. Elon Musk's words about future plans and deadlines often contain optimistic outlooks.
- This article uses some auto-translation.
Source: Yahoo Japan, Investing, Bloomberg, moomoo
-moomoo News Kouchi
Source: Yahoo Japan, Investing, Bloomberg, moomoo
-moomoo News Kouchi
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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かなぶんちゃん : Oh, I'm really looking forward to it. The future of self-driving cars with Optimus and tesla led by Elon. I hope it changes the market like the Internet and iPhone did when they were introduced!
181418060 : Believing in the words of Elon Musk will lead to a painful experience.
181418060 : Tech Talks 'Tesla AI chief explains why self-driving cars don't need lidar' By Ben Dickson-June 28, 2021
Tesla's AI chief explains on June 28, 2021 why self-driving cars don't need lidar. (Unlike companies aiming for full self-driving like Waymo led by Google and Cruise led by GM, Tesla claims that lasers and lidar are not necessary for full self-driving). What's important is the comments section following this explanation, where 9 readers, including American AI experts, criticize the explanation and point out the reality that even Japanese people should be aware of when mocking Tesla. Please search the above sentence on Google to find out more.
181418060 : Why does Elon Musk boast about launching Tesla and FSD in Europe and China by early 2025 instead of in his home country, the USA? The reason is clear. In the United States, each state has a facility equivalent to a driver's license center called the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). The DMV manages driving permits and license renewals for public roads. It also publicly releases qualifications exams related to autonomous driving as 'official documents.' Search for 'Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit Holders' on Google. This document lists companies holding permits for autonomous driving tests, categorized into 'Permits Holders (Testing with a driver),' 'Permits Holders (Driverless Testing),' and 'Permits Holders (Deployment).' The first category indicates companies that have passed qualifications exams for test driving on public roads with a driver on board. The second category represents companies that have passed qualifications exams for test driving on public roads without a driver. The third category refers to companies holding permits to develop and test autonomous driving on public roads, including those permitted to operate taxi services commercially. Companies holding permits in the third category are authorized to operate taxi services as commercial services. In the lists of 'Permits Holders (Testing with a driver)' and 'Permits Holders (Driverless Testing),' Tesla's name is absent, while in 'Permits Holders (Deployment)' category, Tesla's name is also not included. Essentially, Elon Musk's exaggerated advertising of deploying FSD in China and Europe is just a temporary excuse to skillfully cover up the delay in the Robo-taxi announcement, as Tesla's name does not appear in the latter two categories, allowing him to avoid addressing it promptly. Overall, the reality is that the DMV still does not permit Tesla vehicles to test drive on public roads with Level 4 autonomous driving (without a driver) due to their immature Level 2 autonomous driving technology, deeming it 'dangerous' to release Tesla vehicles for test drives on public roads. There should be qualifications exams for Tesla vehicles to drive on public roads with Level 4 autonomous driving (without a driver) in both China and Europe. Can Tesla, which cannot pass the test in the USA, pass a similar test in another country? It is optimistic to think that any country would easily grant permission to a company that might collide with pedestrians.
181418060 : If aiming for fully self-driving cars that humans cannot achieve, rather than the idea of 'humans drive with their eyes, so eyes are sufficient (tesla's concept)', it is completely incomprehensible why they do not focus on realizing the extraordinary wisdom and talents that surpass human abilities that cannot be reached by human perception. It might be good to also consider the extraordinary abilities of creatures like 'bats' or 'dolphins' that use ultrasonics to capture prey. It could also be interesting to focus on the abilities of creatures like the electric eel, which emit electricity to search for prey. Tesla's true intentions seem to solely rely on 'cameras' to win the battle against china's byd and the competition of selling EVs.