Will the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalate after the attack on the Golan Heights?

Israel is preparing to launch a large-scale attack on Lebanon after a deadly rocket attack that occurred in the Golan Heights under Israeli occupation, but analysts say it would not want to trigger an all-out war with Hezbollah.

Israel is blaming that 12 children and young people were killed in the Druze town of Magyar Shams when rockets fired by Lebanese armed groups directly hit a soccer pitch on Saturday.

Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the attack, but Israel has stated that Hezbollah has crossed the “red line” and will pay a “heavy price.”

“However, Hezbollah is attacking Israeli military positions about 2.5 km away from Majdal Shams, and there is a possibility of an aiming mistake,” says Nicholas Branford, an expert on Hezbollah at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Israel and Hezbollah have continued small-scale fighting since Hamas led attacks on communities and military outposts in southern Israel on October 7. Hezbollah has repeatedly stated that it will stop attacking Israel if a cease-fire is established in Gaza, where close to 0.04 million Palestinians died in the Israeli war.

So what does the attack on the Golan Heights mean for a possible escalation between Hezbollah and Israel?

According to analysts, Israel seems to be using this attack to gather domestic and international support for a large-scale attack on Lebanon.

Israel's official page X features an image of the Israeli and Druze flags with the caption: “We are all Druze.”

Another post said, “They take babies hostage. They shoot rockets into private houses. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. They are all Iranians”

These three groups are among the groups cooperating with Iran in this region. It is said as if they are part of an “axis of resistance” supported by Iran, but each group has developed from conflicts specific to each situation and has unique interests.

According to local Israeli media, after the attack on Majdar Shams, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu postponed the departure of 150 wounded and sick children from Gaza who were supposed to be treated in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday.

The Israeli Medical Corps for Human Rights described the delay as “cruel and dangerous,” and stated that the deaths of 12 young people in the Magyar Shams “must not be used for cynical political motives.”

He continued: “This delay in evacuation once again reveals Israel's disregard for the lives of children and innocent civilians in Gaza. Revenge is not a legitimate policy”.

But even as Israel continues to destroy Gaza, analysts believe Israel is trying to minimize civilian casualties in attacks on Lebanon.

“The fact that the victims (in Magyar Shams) were all children and teenagers gives it an emotional [weight], but I don't think Israel wants it to escalate,” Branford told Al Jazeera.

Israel's top army leaders are deepening confrontation with Prime Minister Netanyahu over the battle against Gaza and Lebanon's battle with Hezbollah. Israeli Army press secretary Daniel Hagari stated in June that “those who think it is possible to eliminate Hamas are wrong.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu has long said that Israel's goal in Gaza is to eradicate armed groups.

Mairaf Zonzane, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, said, “Overall, Israelis believe that the goal in Gaza is to eradicate armed groups.

“I think Israelis generally think Israel and Hezbollah will start a major war at some point, but the question is when, how, and under what conditions,” she told Al Jazeera.

“A lot of Israelis think this isn't the time,” she added.

The Israeli military is already struggling to gather enough soldiers to continue the war against Gaza. While many reservists are not on duty, Israel is also reporting shortages of military equipment and munitions.

America, too, does not want the conflict to escalate.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Joav Gallant don't want an all-out war. But if they think a large-scale attack on Lebanon can be carried out without causing a major escalation, they may be underestimating the risk, she says.

“Achieving a cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza and immediately escalating the northern border (with Israel and Lebanon) is the most responsible and sensible way.”

Hezbollah would show some restraint against large-scale Israeli attacks, but Branford said it would aim for a “appropriate” counterattack.

He pointed out that from Hezbollah's standpoint, they have done nothing bad to justify an escalation from Israel, and that their response depends on Israel's attacks.

Israel can target senior Hizbollah commanders, and it can also attack Dahiya, which is a suburb of Beirut and is Hezbollah's base.

“If Israel attacks Dahiya, I wouldn't be surprised if Hezbollah attacks Haifa (an Israeli city, for example) with 1 or 2 missiles. But that response was probably proportional to the overall goal of calming things down,” he told Al Jazeera.

Imad Salamei, a political scientist at the American University of Lebanon, added that Hezbollah's long-term strategy is still tied to Gaza and that they will not sign a cease-fire agreement with Israel until a settlement is established in Gaza.

He believes Hezbollah may have already prepared a post-conflict scenario by agreeing to comply with UN resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War and calls for a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.

The former is the border dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights, and the latter is a large river flowing south toward the Lebanon-Israel border.

“Hezbollah and Israel are likely to insist on victory in subsequent arrangements to maintain their respective domestic support and deter further escalation,” Salami told Al Jazeera.