Will the market crash before or after the US election and the expected US rate cut next week? Polls suggest a Kamala win. DJT tumbles

Global markets and key indicators are suggesting a big pullback could be coming. This generally happens ahead of a US election. And after a US election, markets generally rally. But right now, US markets $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ are experiencing their biggest pullback since early September. [SEE CHART]. The volatility index, in purple, rose 17% in three days, reaching its highest level since July. Fear was last this high in August, before the S&P 500 fell about 8% and then recovered.

I’d encourage you to track the VIX on moomoo. Just type "VIX" $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ in the search bar. It shows that institutions are buying options for downside protection. When it's rising and as high as it is now, it tells us traders are buying investments, like puts, that profit when the market falls. Moomoo traders and investors are doing the same—buying options (puts) and also selling out of stocks they’ve profited from. This might explain why moomoo traders have been selling Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and Tesla $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ this week.

There are two things to consider. What else do you need to know? As election polls moved to suggest Harris is now in favor, we saw huge sell orders in Trump Media $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ shares, with its stock entering a halt after dropping 34% in two days. Markets don’t like uncertainty—perhaps that’s why we’re seeing increased buying in gold.

Join the live stream US election coverage, on November 5 (Sydney time November 6). Hosted by our US team. Or ror more, please see some of my commentary.