Will Tokyo Electron steal US Ram Research's share with new semiconductor etching technology? What are the analysts' predictions
The number one semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Japan $Tokyo Electron(8035.JP$But rice in the same industry using newly developed technology as a weapon $Lam Research(LRCX.US$They are aiming to seize market share. It is said that there is a possibility that the effect of increasing sales due to this new technology will be on the scale of several thousand yen, and it seems that there is a growing view in the market that East Electric will break the stronghold of Lamb Research in the future.
Whereas Toelec handles a wide range of devices used in the pre-process of semiconductor manufacturing, such as film deposition equipment and etching (wafer processing) equipment, Ram Research uses etching equipment, which has the top market share, as the main battlefield. Toelec announced in June this year that it has newly developed etching technology for manufacturing 3D NAND flash memories. It is said that holes can now be drilled 2.5 times faster than before in a laminated structure with 400 or more layers piled up, and it is attracting attention from customers seeking efficient production.
According to analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, it is said that the overall etching equipment market in '22 was over 20 billion dollars (about 3 trillion yen), with leading Ram Research accounting for about 50% and second-place East Elec accounting for about 25%, and “it is possible that East Electric will reverse Ram Research in a few years due to the overall market share of etching devices.” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 13th)
Mizuho Securities said in an analyst report on 8/28, “I'm really looking forward to the etcher (etching device) market share increase story. Lamb Research has a 100% market share for NAND, but I think our company (East Elec) will have an advantage.” The increase in market share is expected to contribute to earnings results from the fiscal year ending 26/3. The target stock price was raised from 23,000 yen to 26,000 yen on the same day.
In a report dated 9/27, JP Morgan also evaluated it as “paying attention to growth potential, such as market share expansion in the etching area in 3DNAND, where layering is progressing.” Orders are expected to be received after 24-25. The target stock price was raised from 20,000 yen to 24,000 yen.
There were concerns about prolonged sluggish market conditions for NAND flash memory, but Bloomberg pointed out a sense of bottoming out on the 13th, saying “signs of bottoming out and reversal have finally begun to be seen in recent weeks.”
Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Toyo Keizai Inc., companies' websites, companies' analyst reports, moomoo
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グレナダ : As I ask everyone, the effect of increasing sales due to this new technology is on the scale of several thousand yen. Don't you think it was a mistake worth hundreds of billions of yen?